Current forecasts from official monitoring indicate Hong Kong's maximum temperature on May 21 will likely reach 28–29°C, reflecting typical late-spring atmospheric conditions with moderate humidity and variable cloud cover that limits strong solar heating. Ensemble models show slight divergence in peak timing, where afternoon convective showers or increased moisture could cap the high at 28°C, while clearer intervals allow brief warming toward 29°C. These closely matched outcomes align with historical May averages near 28.4°C and the seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures, underscoring how small shifts in diurnal temperature range and precipitation timing create the narrow probability spread between the leading bins.