Current forecast models, including recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs, position a mild overnight low near 20–21°C as the most probable outcome for Shanghai on May 24, aligning with the market’s leading 38.5% implied probability for 21°C. Late-May climatology in the Yangtze River Delta typically features minimum temperatures around 16–18°C under subtropical monsoon influence, yet persistent high-pressure ridging and limited cold-air advection have shifted consensus upward by 2–3°C over the past week. Model spread remains narrow, with limited divergence on wind or moisture fields that could drive sharper cooling, supporting the clustering of probabilities between 18°C and 22°C. Updated China Meteorological Administration guidance and the next 48-hour model cycle will likely refine these odds ahead of the daily minimum resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 24?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 24?
21°C 41%
22°C 27%
20°C 24%
19°C 21%
NEW
NEW
May 24, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
5%
16°C
4%
17°C
8%
18°C
19%
19°C
21%
20°C
24%
21°C
39%
22°C
19%
23°C
14%
24°C or higher
4%
21°C 41%
22°C 27%
20°C 24%
19°C 21%
NEW
NEW
May 24, 2026
14°C or below
$243 Vol.
1%
15°C
$253 Vol.
5%
16°C
$149 Vol.
4%
17°C
$10 Vol.
8%
18°C
$0 Vol.
19%
19°C
$0 Vol.
21%
20°C
$0 Vol.
24%
21°C
$40 Vol.
39%
22°C
$14 Vol.
19%
23°C
$66 Vol.
14%
24°C or higher
$109 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models, including recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs, position a mild overnight low near 20–21°C as the most probable outcome for Shanghai on May 24, aligning with the market’s leading 38.5% implied probability for 21°C. Late-May climatology in the Yangtze River Delta typically features minimum temperatures around 16–18°C under subtropical monsoon influence, yet persistent high-pressure ridging and limited cold-air advection have shifted consensus upward by 2–3°C over the past week. Model spread remains narrow, with limited divergence on wind or moisture fields that could drive sharper cooling, supporting the clustering of probabilities between 18°C and 22°C. Updated China Meteorological Administration guidance and the next 48-hour model cycle will likely refine these odds ahead of the daily minimum resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$883End Date
May 24, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models, including recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs, position a mild overnight low near 20–21°C as the most probable outcome for Shanghai on May 24, aligning with the market’s leading 38.5% implied probability for 21°C. Late-May climatology in the Yangtze River Delta typically features minimum temperatures around 16–18°C under subtropical monsoon influence, yet persistent high-pressure ridging and limited cold-air advection have shifted consensus upward by 2–3°C over the past week. Model spread remains narrow, with limited divergence on wind or moisture fields that could drive sharper cooling, supporting the clustering of probabilities between 18°C and 22°C. Updated China Meteorological Administration guidance and the next 48-hour model cycle will likely refine these odds ahead of the daily minimum resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$883End Date
May 24, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models, including recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs, position a mild overnight low near 20–21°C as the most probable outcome for Shanghai on May 24, aligning with the market’s leading 38.5% implied probability for 21°C. Late-May climatology in the Yangtze River Delta typically features minimum temperatures around 16–18°C under subtropical monsoon influence, yet persistent high-pressure ridging and limited cold-air advection have shifted consensus upward by 2–3°C over the past week. Model spread remains narrow, with limited divergence on wind or moisture fields that could drive sharper cooling, supporting the clustering of probabilities between 18°C and 22°C. Updated China Meteorological Administration guidance and the next 48-hour model cycle will likely refine these odds ahead of the daily minimum resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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