Current forecast models from regional meteorological services project a daytime high near 26°C for Mexico City on May 22, aligning with late-spring climatology in the Valley of Mexico where subsidence and clear skies typically support maxima of 25–27°C. This consensus underpins the market-implied 92.5% probability for 24°C or higher, as ensemble runs show only modest diurnal variability and limited moisture intrusion. Historical May averages around 26°C further reinforce trader positioning, while any shift would require an atypical frontal passage or enhanced cloud cover to suppress the peak. Official temperature readings tomorrow will resolve the market, with updates from monitoring stations expected by late afternoon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on May 22?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 22?
24°C or higher 93%
23°C 4.8%
22°C 1.4%
21°C <1%
NEW
NEW
May 22, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
5%
24°C or higher
93%
24°C or higher 93%
23°C 4.8%
22°C 1.4%
21°C <1%
NEW
NEW
May 22, 2026
14°C or below
$209 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$307 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$40 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$130 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$30 Vol.
1%
21°C
$126 Vol.
1%
22°C
$98 Vol.
1%
23°C
$143 Vol.
5%
24°C or higher
$174 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models from regional meteorological services project a daytime high near 26°C for Mexico City on May 22, aligning with late-spring climatology in the Valley of Mexico where subsidence and clear skies typically support maxima of 25–27°C. This consensus underpins the market-implied 92.5% probability for 24°C or higher, as ensemble runs show only modest diurnal variability and limited moisture intrusion. Historical May averages around 26°C further reinforce trader positioning, while any shift would require an atypical frontal passage or enhanced cloud cover to suppress the peak. Official temperature readings tomorrow will resolve the market, with updates from monitoring stations expected by late afternoon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 20, 2026, 12:35 AM ET
Volume
$1,402End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:35 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models from regional meteorological services project a daytime high near 26°C for Mexico City on May 22, aligning with late-spring climatology in the Valley of Mexico where subsidence and clear skies typically support maxima of 25–27°C. This consensus underpins the market-implied 92.5% probability for 24°C or higher, as ensemble runs show only modest diurnal variability and limited moisture intrusion. Historical May averages around 26°C further reinforce trader positioning, while any shift would require an atypical frontal passage or enhanced cloud cover to suppress the peak. Official temperature readings tomorrow will resolve the market, with updates from monitoring stations expected by late afternoon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,402End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:35 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from regional meteorological services project a daytime high near 26°C for Mexico City on May 22, aligning with late-spring climatology in the Valley of Mexico where subsidence and clear skies typically support maxima of 25–27°C. This consensus underpins the market-implied 92.5% probability for 24°C or higher, as ensemble runs show only modest diurnal variability and limited moisture intrusion. Historical May averages around 26°C further reinforce trader positioning, while any shift would require an atypical frontal passage or enhanced cloud cover to suppress the peak. Official temperature readings tomorrow will resolve the market, with updates from monitoring stations expected by late afternoon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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