Recent forecast guidance from MetService and supporting numerical weather prediction models indicates a maximum temperature of 17°C in Wellington on May 21 under settled autumn conditions with light northerly winds and minimal cloud cover. This aligns with climatological norms for late May, when daily highs typically range from 14–17°C as solar radiation declines and cooler southerly airstreams dominate the Cook Strait region. Trader consensus at 98.5% for 17°C reflects the tight clustering of model outputs and absence of any warm advection signals that could push readings to 18°C or above. A late-day change in wind direction or unexpected clear-sky heating could still lift the peak slightly, though current observations show low likelihood of such shifts before resolution.