National Weather Service forecasts indicate a high near 88°F for Houston on May 15 under mostly sunny skies with south winds 5-15 mph, aligning with the 86% market-implied probability for 86°F or higher as trader consensus reflects strong model agreement from recent GFS and ECMWF runs. This positioning stems from a building high-pressure ridge fostering subsidence aloft and warm advection via southerly flow, continuing the recent trend of upper-80s to low-90s daytime highs observed over the past week amid stagnant conditions prompting ozone action days on May 13-14. The May 15 climatological normal high of 87°F at Houston's Intercontinental Airport provides baseline support, though minor uncertainties like isolated clouds or gusty winds could cap peaks at 84-85°F (9.5% odds). Traders await the NWS afternoon update for refined guidance ahead of resolution based on official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on May 15?
Highest temperature in Houston on May 15?
86°F or higher 87%
84-85°F 8%
82-83°F 2.0%
80-81°F 1.1%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
8%
86°F or higher
87%
86°F or higher 87%
84-85°F 8%
82-83°F 2.0%
80-81°F 1.1%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
67°F or below
$1,186 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$1,303 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$1,125 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$1,106 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$1,156 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$234 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$254 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$114 Vol.
1%
82-83°F
$177 Vol.
2%
84-85°F
$1,196 Vol.
8%
86°F or higher
$366 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts indicate a high near 88°F for Houston on May 15 under mostly sunny skies with south winds 5-15 mph, aligning with the 86% market-implied probability for 86°F or higher as trader consensus reflects strong model agreement from recent GFS and ECMWF runs. This positioning stems from a building high-pressure ridge fostering subsidence aloft and warm advection via southerly flow, continuing the recent trend of upper-80s to low-90s daytime highs observed over the past week amid stagnant conditions prompting ozone action days on May 13-14. The May 15 climatological normal high of 87°F at Houston's Intercontinental Airport provides baseline support, though minor uncertainties like isolated clouds or gusty winds could cap peaks at 84-85°F (9.5% odds). Traders await the NWS afternoon update for refined guidance ahead of resolution based on official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:44 AM ET
Volume
$8,200End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:44 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts indicate a high near 88°F for Houston on May 15 under mostly sunny skies with south winds 5-15 mph, aligning with the 86% market-implied probability for 86°F or higher as trader consensus reflects strong model agreement from recent GFS and ECMWF runs. This positioning stems from a building high-pressure ridge fostering subsidence aloft and warm advection via southerly flow, continuing the recent trend of upper-80s to low-90s daytime highs observed over the past week amid stagnant conditions prompting ozone action days on May 13-14. The May 15 climatological normal high of 87°F at Houston's Intercontinental Airport provides baseline support, though minor uncertainties like isolated clouds or gusty winds could cap peaks at 84-85°F (9.5% odds). Traders await the NWS afternoon update for refined guidance ahead of resolution based on official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,200End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:44 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts indicate a high near 88°F for Houston on May 15 under mostly sunny skies with south winds 5-15 mph, aligning with the 86% market-implied probability for 86°F or higher as trader consensus reflects strong model agreement from recent GFS and ECMWF runs. This positioning stems from a building high-pressure ridge fostering subsidence aloft and warm advection via southerly flow, continuing the recent trend of upper-80s to low-90s daytime highs observed over the past week amid stagnant conditions prompting ozone action days on May 13-14. The May 15 climatological normal high of 87°F at Houston's Intercontinental Airport provides baseline support, though minor uncertainties like isolated clouds or gusty winds could cap peaks at 84-85°F (9.5% odds). Traders await the NWS afternoon update for refined guidance ahead of resolution based on official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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