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icon for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?

icon for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?

May 13

May 14

May 15

May 13

May 14

May 15

29°C or higher 44%

28°C 33%

27°C 20%

26°C 3.2%

Polymarket
NEW

$12,433 Vol.

29°C or higher 44%

28°C 33%

27°C 20%

26°C 3.2%

Polymarket
NEW

$12,433 Vol.

19°C or below

$1,697 Vol.

<1%

20°C

$1,151 Vol.

<1%

21°C

$1,180 Vol.

<1%

22°C

$945 Vol.

<1%

23°C

$1,310 Vol.

1%

24°C

$397 Vol.

1%

25°C

$880 Vol.

1%

26°C

$1,372 Vol.

3%

27°C

$1,138 Vol.

20%

28°C

$1,112 Vol.

33%

29°C or higher

$1,255 Vol.

44%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's May 13 forecast projects a May 15 maximum of 28°C amid mainly cloudy conditions with heavy showers and squally thunderstorms from an approaching trough of low pressure, explaining the tight trader consensus with 29°C or higher at 41.5% slightly edging 28°C at 33.5%. Recent highs near 31°C on May 12 reflect subsiding heat, but south-southeast winds (force 3-4) and 80-95% relative humidity favor maritime cooling and limited diurnal warming. Key differentiators include shower timing—early heavies versus afternoon breaks enabling brief solar spikes—and model spread on cloud cover persistence, with seasonal above-normal temperatures adding upside risk. Updated HKO guidance expected today could sharpen odds.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$12,433
End Date
May 15, 2026
Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's May 13 forecast projects a May 15 maximum of 28°C amid mainly cloudy conditions with heavy showers and squally thunderstorms from an approaching trough of low pressure, explaining the tight trader consensus with 29°C or higher at 41.5% slightly edging 28°C at 33.5%. Recent highs near 31°C on May 12 reflect subsiding heat, but south-southeast winds (force 3-4) and 80-95% relative humidity favor maritime cooling and limited diurnal warming. Key differentiators include shower timing—early heavies versus afternoon breaks enabling brief solar spikes—and model spread on cloud cover persistence, with seasonal above-normal temperatures adding upside risk. Updated HKO guidance expected today could sharpen odds.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$12,433
End Date
May 15, 2026
Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "29°C or higher" at 44%, followed by "28°C" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?" has generated $12.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?" is "29°C or higher" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "28°C" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.