Recent ECMWF ensemble runs and KNMI guidance show a moderating northwesterly flow over the Netherlands, with daytime highs for Amsterdam on May 18 most likely reaching 14–16 °C under broken cloud and light winds. This setup, following several days of cooler maritime air and showers, has elevated the market-implied probability for a 15 °C peak to 41 percent while keeping 14 °C and 16 °C as close contenders. Limited afternoon sunshine and a marine layer are expected to cap further warming, consistent with the May climatological range of 16–18 °C. Updated midday model output and Schiphol observations will refine whether any additional clearing pushes the maximum toward the upper end of that narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on May 18?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 18?
15°C 42%
16°C 24%
14°C 24%
13°C 4.5%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
5%
14°C
24%
15°C
42%
16°C
24%
17°C
3%
18°C or higher
1%
15°C 42%
16°C 24%
14°C 24%
13°C 4.5%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
$463 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$548 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$226 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$414 Vol.
1%
12°C
$399 Vol.
1%
13°C
$458 Vol.
5%
14°C
$1,328 Vol.
24%
15°C
$842 Vol.
42%
16°C
$703 Vol.
24%
17°C
$387 Vol.
3%
18°C or higher
$794 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ECMWF ensemble runs and KNMI guidance show a moderating northwesterly flow over the Netherlands, with daytime highs for Amsterdam on May 18 most likely reaching 14–16 °C under broken cloud and light winds. This setup, following several days of cooler maritime air and showers, has elevated the market-implied probability for a 15 °C peak to 41 percent while keeping 14 °C and 16 °C as close contenders. Limited afternoon sunshine and a marine layer are expected to cap further warming, consistent with the May climatological range of 16–18 °C. Updated midday model output and Schiphol observations will refine whether any additional clearing pushes the maximum toward the upper end of that narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$6,560End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ECMWF ensemble runs and KNMI guidance show a moderating northwesterly flow over the Netherlands, with daytime highs for Amsterdam on May 18 most likely reaching 14–16 °C under broken cloud and light winds. This setup, following several days of cooler maritime air and showers, has elevated the market-implied probability for a 15 °C peak to 41 percent while keeping 14 °C and 16 °C as close contenders. Limited afternoon sunshine and a marine layer are expected to cap further warming, consistent with the May climatological range of 16–18 °C. Updated midday model output and Schiphol observations will refine whether any additional clearing pushes the maximum toward the upper end of that narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,560End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMRecent ECMWF ensemble runs and KNMI guidance show a moderating northwesterly flow over the Netherlands, with daytime highs for Amsterdam on May 18 most likely reaching 14–16 °C under broken cloud and light winds. This setup, following several days of cooler maritime air and showers, has elevated the market-implied probability for a 15 °C peak to 41 percent while keeping 14 °C and 16 °C as close contenders. Limited afternoon sunshine and a marine layer are expected to cap further warming, consistent with the May climatological range of 16–18 °C. Updated midday model output and Schiphol observations will refine whether any additional clearing pushes the maximum toward the upper end of that narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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