Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, updated as of May 14, position trader consensus around an 11°C maximum for Amsterdam on May 15, reflecting overcast skies and drizzle from a persistent westerly flow advecting cool North Atlantic maritime air. This setup limits solar insolation and daytime heating, with model runs showing tight clustering near 11°C amid light winds (10-15 km/h) and high humidity above 80%. Recent observations confirm the cool pattern, following variable early May conditions including a 4°C low on May 7, well below the 16°C climatological average. KNMI measurements at Schiphol Airport will resolve the market; watch afternoon updates for minor frontal timing shifts that could nudge outcomes toward 10-12°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on May 15?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 15?
11°C 47%
10°C 22%
12°C 22%
13°C 7.1%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
7°C or below
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
5%
10°C
22%
11°C
47%
12°C
22%
13°C
7%
14°C
3%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
11°C 47%
10°C 22%
12°C 22%
13°C 7.1%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
7°C or below
$274 Vol.
1%
8°C
$294 Vol.
1%
9°C
$306 Vol.
5%
10°C
$688 Vol.
22%
11°C
$683 Vol.
47%
12°C
$466 Vol.
22%
13°C
$534 Vol.
7%
14°C
$188 Vol.
3%
15°C
$239 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$291 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$723 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, updated as of May 14, position trader consensus around an 11°C maximum for Amsterdam on May 15, reflecting overcast skies and drizzle from a persistent westerly flow advecting cool North Atlantic maritime air. This setup limits solar insolation and daytime heating, with model runs showing tight clustering near 11°C amid light winds (10-15 km/h) and high humidity above 80%. Recent observations confirm the cool pattern, following variable early May conditions including a 4°C low on May 7, well below the 16°C climatological average. KNMI measurements at Schiphol Airport will resolve the market; watch afternoon updates for minor frontal timing shifts that could nudge outcomes toward 10-12°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:53 AM ET
Volume
$4,685End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:53 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, updated as of May 14, position trader consensus around an 11°C maximum for Amsterdam on May 15, reflecting overcast skies and drizzle from a persistent westerly flow advecting cool North Atlantic maritime air. This setup limits solar insolation and daytime heating, with model runs showing tight clustering near 11°C amid light winds (10-15 km/h) and high humidity above 80%. Recent observations confirm the cool pattern, following variable early May conditions including a 4°C low on May 7, well below the 16°C climatological average. KNMI measurements at Schiphol Airport will resolve the market; watch afternoon updates for minor frontal timing shifts that could nudge outcomes toward 10-12°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,685End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:53 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, updated as of May 14, position trader consensus around an 11°C maximum for Amsterdam on May 15, reflecting overcast skies and drizzle from a persistent westerly flow advecting cool North Atlantic maritime air. This setup limits solar insolation and daytime heating, with model runs showing tight clustering near 11°C amid light winds (10-15 km/h) and high humidity above 80%. Recent observations confirm the cool pattern, following variable early May conditions including a 4°C low on May 7, well below the 16°C climatological average. KNMI measurements at Schiphol Airport will resolve the market; watch afternoon updates for minor frontal timing shifts that could nudge outcomes toward 10-12°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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