Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 14–17°C for Shanghai's May 2 minimum temperature, reflecting forecast model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, which project overnight lows near 17°C amid persistent cloudy conditions and light southerly winds limiting radiative cooling. Recent developments include a late-April cool spell, with April 30 lows dipping to 13°C under cloudy skies, prompting traders to weight slightly lower outcomes if partial cloud breaks emerge overnight into May 2, enhancing surface cooling in Shanghai's coastal urban environment. Key differentiators include cloud cover evolution—sustained overcast favors 17°C, while intermittent clearing and calm winds could drop to 14–15°C—against historical early-May averages of 16°C. Updated model runs expected today may sharpen this uncertainty before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Shanghái el 2 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en Shanghái el 2 de mayo?
16°C 39%
17°C 35%
14°C 21%
15°C 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
11°C o menos
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
9%
14°C
21%
15°C
16%
16°C
35%
17°C
20%
18°C
9%
19°C
6%
20°C
1%
21°C o más
1%
16°C 39%
17°C 35%
14°C 21%
15°C 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
11°C o menos
$56 Vol.
1%
12°C
$56 Vol.
1%
13°C
$44 Vol.
9%
14°C
$12 Vol.
21%
15°C
$152 Vol.
16%
16°C
$61 Vol.
35%
17°C
$47 Vol.
20%
18°C
$12 Vol.
9%
19°C
$44 Vol.
6%
20°C
$56 Vol.
1%
21°C o más
$56 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 14–17°C for Shanghai's May 2 minimum temperature, reflecting forecast model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, which project overnight lows near 17°C amid persistent cloudy conditions and light southerly winds limiting radiative cooling. Recent developments include a late-April cool spell, with April 30 lows dipping to 13°C under cloudy skies, prompting traders to weight slightly lower outcomes if partial cloud breaks emerge overnight into May 2, enhancing surface cooling in Shanghai's coastal urban environment. Key differentiators include cloud cover evolution—sustained overcast favors 17°C, while intermittent clearing and calm winds could drop to 14–15°C—against historical early-May averages of 16°C. Updated model runs expected today may sharpen this uncertainty before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$597Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 14–17°C for Shanghai's May 2 minimum temperature, reflecting forecast model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, which project overnight lows near 17°C amid persistent cloudy conditions and light southerly winds limiting radiative cooling. Recent developments include a late-April cool spell, with April 30 lows dipping to 13°C under cloudy skies, prompting traders to weight slightly lower outcomes if partial cloud breaks emerge overnight into May 2, enhancing surface cooling in Shanghai's coastal urban environment. Key differentiators include cloud cover evolution—sustained overcast favors 17°C, while intermittent clearing and calm winds could drop to 14–15°C—against historical early-May averages of 16°C. Updated model runs expected today may sharpen this uncertainty before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$597Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 14–17°C for Shanghai's May 2 minimum temperature, reflecting forecast model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, which project overnight lows near 17°C amid persistent cloudy conditions and light southerly winds limiting radiative cooling. Recent developments include a late-April cool spell, with April 30 lows dipping to 13°C under cloudy skies, prompting traders to weight slightly lower outcomes if partial cloud breaks emerge overnight into May 2, enhancing surface cooling in Shanghai's coastal urban environment. Key differentiators include cloud cover evolution—sustained overcast favors 17°C, while intermittent clearing and calm winds could drop to 14–15°C—against historical early-May averages of 16°C. Updated model runs expected today may sharpen this uncertainty before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes