Latest ensemble forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and China Meteorological Administration indicate Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 1 clustering around 10–11°C, driven by a lingering cool air mass from recent northerly flows, persistent overcast conditions, and light southerly winds that limit daytime warming while capping nocturnal cooling. April 30 observations logged daytime highs near 23°C but overnight lows dipping to 10°C amid cloudy skies, aligning with model projections for similar minima tomorrow morning at official Shanghai stations. Trader consensus reflects this guidance, with 59.5% implied probability on 11°C and 29% on 10°C, though short-term model divergences could shift outcomes; expect resolution via verified China Meteorological Administration data post-midnight May 2. Historical early May lows average 14–16°C, but this year's cooler spring pattern elevates lower-end risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 1?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 1?
10°C 95%
9°C 1.2%
8°C <1%
7°C or below <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 may 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
95%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
10°C 95%
9°C 1.2%
8°C <1%
7°C or below <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 may 2026
7°C or below
$818 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$380 Vol.
1%
9°C
$497 Vol.
1%
10°C
$312 Vol.
95%
11°C
$513 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,181 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$256 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and China Meteorological Administration indicate Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 1 clustering around 10–11°C, driven by a lingering cool air mass from recent northerly flows, persistent overcast conditions, and light southerly winds that limit daytime warming while capping nocturnal cooling. April 30 observations logged daytime highs near 23°C but overnight lows dipping to 10°C amid cloudy skies, aligning with model projections for similar minima tomorrow morning at official Shanghai stations. Trader consensus reflects this guidance, with 59.5% implied probability on 11°C and 29% on 10°C, though short-term model divergences could shift outcomes; expect resolution via verified China Meteorological Administration data post-midnight May 2. Historical early May lows average 14–16°C, but this year's cooler spring pattern elevates lower-end risks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$7,425Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and China Meteorological Administration indicate Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 1 clustering around 10–11°C, driven by a lingering cool air mass from recent northerly flows, persistent overcast conditions, and light southerly winds that limit daytime warming while capping nocturnal cooling. April 30 observations logged daytime highs near 23°C but overnight lows dipping to 10°C amid cloudy skies, aligning with model projections for similar minima tomorrow morning at official Shanghai stations. Trader consensus reflects this guidance, with 59.5% implied probability on 11°C and 29% on 10°C, though short-term model divergences could shift outcomes; expect resolution via verified China Meteorological Administration data post-midnight May 2. Historical early May lows average 14–16°C, but this year's cooler spring pattern elevates lower-end risks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$7,425Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and China Meteorological Administration indicate Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 1 clustering around 10–11°C, driven by a lingering cool air mass from recent northerly flows, persistent overcast conditions, and light southerly winds that limit daytime warming while capping nocturnal cooling. April 30 observations logged daytime highs near 23°C but overnight lows dipping to 10°C amid cloudy skies, aligning with model projections for similar minima tomorrow morning at official Shanghai stations. Trader consensus reflects this guidance, with 59.5% implied probability on 11°C and 29% on 10°C, though short-term model divergences could shift outcomes; expect resolution via verified China Meteorological Administration data post-midnight May 2. Historical early May lows average 14–16°C, but this year's cooler spring pattern elevates lower-end risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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