Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Paris's lowest temperature on May 5, with implied probabilities evenly split around 6–12°C due to divergent model outputs from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles. Météo-France's latest Île-de-France bulletin (updated May 3) projects ongoing mild conditions with cloudy skies and light showers overnight May 4–5, potentially limiting radiative cooling and favoring lows near 10–13°C as seen recently (13°C May 4 minimum). However, drier scenarios in some models like meteoblue suggest possible drops to 8°C if clouds thin, while persistent overcast traps heat above 12°C. Key differentiator: cloud cover extent and light winds (5–15 km/h); watch afternoon ECMWF updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en París el 5 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en París el 5 de mayo?
13°C 33.0%
11°C 24%
12°C 23%
10°C 20.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 may 2026
5°C o menos
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
5%
10°C
13%
11°C
24%
12°C
23%
13°C
25%
14°C
3%
15°C o más
3%
13°C 33.0%
11°C 24%
12°C 23%
10°C 20.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 may 2026
5°C o menos
$25 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$108 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$68 Vol.
1%
8°C
$57 Vol.
1%
9°C
$0 Vol.
5%
10°C
$5 Vol.
13%
11°C
$8 Vol.
24%
12°C
$58 Vol.
23%
13°C
$33 Vol.
25%
14°C
$335 Vol.
3%
15°C o más
$354 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Paris's lowest temperature on May 5, with implied probabilities evenly split around 6–12°C due to divergent model outputs from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles. Météo-France's latest Île-de-France bulletin (updated May 3) projects ongoing mild conditions with cloudy skies and light showers overnight May 4–5, potentially limiting radiative cooling and favoring lows near 10–13°C as seen recently (13°C May 4 minimum). However, drier scenarios in some models like meteoblue suggest possible drops to 8°C if clouds thin, while persistent overcast traps heat above 12°C. Key differentiator: cloud cover extent and light winds (5–15 km/h); watch afternoon ECMWF updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 3, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volumen
$1,052Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 3, 2026, 12:01 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Paris's lowest temperature on May 5, with implied probabilities evenly split around 6–12°C due to divergent model outputs from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles. Météo-France's latest Île-de-France bulletin (updated May 3) projects ongoing mild conditions with cloudy skies and light showers overnight May 4–5, potentially limiting radiative cooling and favoring lows near 10–13°C as seen recently (13°C May 4 minimum). However, drier scenarios in some models like meteoblue suggest possible drops to 8°C if clouds thin, while persistent overcast traps heat above 12°C. Key differentiator: cloud cover extent and light winds (5–15 km/h); watch afternoon ECMWF updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,052Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 3, 2026, 12:01 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Paris's lowest temperature on May 5, with implied probabilities evenly split around 6–12°C due to divergent model outputs from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles. Météo-France's latest Île-de-France bulletin (updated May 3) projects ongoing mild conditions with cloudy skies and light showers overnight May 4–5, potentially limiting radiative cooling and favoring lows near 10–13°C as seen recently (13°C May 4 minimum). However, drier scenarios in some models like meteoblue suggest possible drops to 8°C if clouds thin, while persistent overcast traps heat above 12°C. Key differentiator: cloud cover extent and light winds (5–15 km/h); watch afternoon ECMWF updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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