Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a minimum temperature of 12°C in London on May 4, 2026 (96.7% implied probability), driven by the latest Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts projecting overnight lows around 10–12°C amid light cloud cover and gentle northerly winds that curb radiative cooling. Current observations at 10am show 16°C with sunny intervals transitioning to drizzle, consistent with hourly projections dipping to 14°C by midnight before stabilizing—urban heat island effects in central London further bolster milder minima compared to cooler outlying stations like Heathrow (forecast 8°C). Model consensus from ECMWF and UKMO runs reinforces this positioning after yesterday's mild 19°C high. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing skies accelerating cooling to 10–11°C or an unforecast pulse of colder air, with final observations resolving post-midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Londres el 4 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en Londres el 4 de mayo?
12°C 96.9%
11°C <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$17,215 Vol.
$17,215 Vol.
4 may 2026
5°C o menos
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
97%
12°C 96.9%
11°C <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$17,215 Vol.
$17,215 Vol.
4 may 2026
5°C o menos
$6,404 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$1,942 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$486 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$1,648 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$397 Vol.
1%
10°C
$233 Vol.
1%
11°C
$376 Vol.
1%
12°C
$957 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a minimum temperature of 12°C in London on May 4, 2026 (96.7% implied probability), driven by the latest Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts projecting overnight lows around 10–12°C amid light cloud cover and gentle northerly winds that curb radiative cooling. Current observations at 10am show 16°C with sunny intervals transitioning to drizzle, consistent with hourly projections dipping to 14°C by midnight before stabilizing—urban heat island effects in central London further bolster milder minima compared to cooler outlying stations like Heathrow (forecast 8°C). Model consensus from ECMWF and UKMO runs reinforces this positioning after yesterday's mild 19°C high. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing skies accelerating cooling to 10–11°C or an unforecast pulse of colder air, with final observations resolving post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$17,215Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a minimum temperature of 12°C in London on May 4, 2026 (96.7% implied probability), driven by the latest Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts projecting overnight lows around 10–12°C amid light cloud cover and gentle northerly winds that curb radiative cooling. Current observations at 10am show 16°C with sunny intervals transitioning to drizzle, consistent with hourly projections dipping to 14°C by midnight before stabilizing—urban heat island effects in central London further bolster milder minima compared to cooler outlying stations like Heathrow (forecast 8°C). Model consensus from ECMWF and UKMO runs reinforces this positioning after yesterday's mild 19°C high. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing skies accelerating cooling to 10–11°C or an unforecast pulse of colder air, with final observations resolving post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$17,215Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a minimum temperature of 12°C in London on May 4, 2026 (96.7% implied probability), driven by the latest Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts projecting overnight lows around 10–12°C amid light cloud cover and gentle northerly winds that curb radiative cooling. Current observations at 10am show 16°C with sunny intervals transitioning to drizzle, consistent with hourly projections dipping to 14°C by midnight before stabilizing—urban heat island effects in central London further bolster milder minima compared to cooler outlying stations like Heathrow (forecast 8°C). Model consensus from ECMWF and UKMO runs reinforces this positioning after yesterday's mild 19°C high. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing skies accelerating cooling to 10–11°C or an unforecast pulse of colder air, with final observations resolving post-midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes