MetService's latest forecast projects a daytime high of 15°C in Wellington on May 3 under fine conditions and northerly winds, driving trader consensus toward this outcome at the top implied probability amid closely clustered odds for 14–17°C. This aligns with early May climatological norms, where average highs hover around 15°C based on historical data from NIWA and WeatherSpark, amid a potential shift to El Niño conditions (65% chance per NIWA seasonal outlook) that could favor slightly warmer, drier autumn weather. Model discrepancies—such as NIWA's cooler 13°C projection—underscore short-term uncertainty from steering winds and frontal timing, with fresh updates expected Saturday to clarify intensification potential or cloud cover impacts before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Wellington on May 3?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 3?
16°C 41%
15°C 29%
17°C 24%
14°C 6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 may 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
6%
15°C
29%
16°C
41%
17°C
24%
18°C
5%
19°C or higher
1%
16°C 41%
15°C 29%
17°C 24%
14°C 6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 may 2026
9°C or below
$981 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$193 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$267 Vol.
1%
12°C
$59 Vol.
1%
13°C
$141 Vol.
1%
14°C
$264 Vol.
6%
15°C
$259 Vol.
29%
16°C
$333 Vol.
41%
17°C
$55 Vol.
24%
18°C
$226 Vol.
5%
19°C or higher
$250 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.MetService's latest forecast projects a daytime high of 15°C in Wellington on May 3 under fine conditions and northerly winds, driving trader consensus toward this outcome at the top implied probability amid closely clustered odds for 14–17°C. This aligns with early May climatological norms, where average highs hover around 15°C based on historical data from NIWA and WeatherSpark, amid a potential shift to El Niño conditions (65% chance per NIWA seasonal outlook) that could favor slightly warmer, drier autumn weather. Model discrepancies—such as NIWA's cooler 13°C projection—underscore short-term uncertainty from steering winds and frontal timing, with fresh updates expected Saturday to clarify intensification potential or cloud cover impacts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 1, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$3,028Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 1, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.MetService's latest forecast projects a daytime high of 15°C in Wellington on May 3 under fine conditions and northerly winds, driving trader consensus toward this outcome at the top implied probability amid closely clustered odds for 14–17°C. This aligns with early May climatological norms, where average highs hover around 15°C based on historical data from NIWA and WeatherSpark, amid a potential shift to El Niño conditions (65% chance per NIWA seasonal outlook) that could favor slightly warmer, drier autumn weather. Model discrepancies—such as NIWA's cooler 13°C projection—underscore short-term uncertainty from steering winds and frontal timing, with fresh updates expected Saturday to clarify intensification potential or cloud cover impacts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$3,028Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 1, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...MetService's latest forecast projects a daytime high of 15°C in Wellington on May 3 under fine conditions and northerly winds, driving trader consensus toward this outcome at the top implied probability amid closely clustered odds for 14–17°C. This aligns with early May climatological norms, where average highs hover around 15°C based on historical data from NIWA and WeatherSpark, amid a potential shift to El Niño conditions (65% chance per NIWA seasonal outlook) that could favor slightly warmer, drier autumn weather. Model discrepancies—such as NIWA's cooler 13°C projection—underscore short-term uncertainty from steering winds and frontal timing, with fresh updates expected Saturday to clarify intensification potential or cloud cover impacts before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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