Latest AEMET guidance and ECMWF ensemble forecasts project Madrid's highest temperature on May 1 clustering tightly around 24-25°C under a stable high-pressure ridge promoting abundant sunshine and above-normal early May warmth, driving the near-even trader split between these outcomes at 37% and 40% implied probabilities. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on afternoon cloud development—potentially capping peaks at 24°C—or sustained southerly winds enhancing low-level warm air advection to push toward 26°C, as seen in the past 24-hour GFS update showing marginal warming. Historical May 1 averages hover near 21°C per long-term records, but current climatological analogs favor the warmer bias. New observational data from Madrid-Barajas station and overnight model runs could sharpen consensus before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on May 1?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 1?
25°C 40%
24°C 37%
23°C 11%
26°C 11%
NUEVO
$17,227 Vol.
NUEVO
$17,227 Vol.
1 may 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
11%
24°C
37%
25°C
40%
26°C
11%
27°C
3%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 40%
24°C 37%
23°C 11%
26°C 11%
NUEVO
$17,227 Vol.
NUEVO
$17,227 Vol.
1 may 2026
19°C or below
$946 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$685 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$3,314 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$2,087 Vol.
1%
23°C
$2,103 Vol.
11%
24°C
$2,647 Vol.
37%
25°C
$1,508 Vol.
40%
26°C
$1,588 Vol.
11%
27°C
$614 Vol.
3%
28°C
$1,066 Vol.
1%
29°C or higher
$1,068 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET guidance and ECMWF ensemble forecasts project Madrid's highest temperature on May 1 clustering tightly around 24-25°C under a stable high-pressure ridge promoting abundant sunshine and above-normal early May warmth, driving the near-even trader split between these outcomes at 37% and 40% implied probabilities. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on afternoon cloud development—potentially capping peaks at 24°C—or sustained southerly winds enhancing low-level warm air advection to push toward 26°C, as seen in the past 24-hour GFS update showing marginal warming. Historical May 1 averages hover near 21°C per long-term records, but current climatological analogs favor the warmer bias. New observational data from Madrid-Barajas station and overnight model runs could sharpen consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
Volumen
$17,227Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:19 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET guidance and ECMWF ensemble forecasts project Madrid's highest temperature on May 1 clustering tightly around 24-25°C under a stable high-pressure ridge promoting abundant sunshine and above-normal early May warmth, driving the near-even trader split between these outcomes at 37% and 40% implied probabilities. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on afternoon cloud development—potentially capping peaks at 24°C—or sustained southerly winds enhancing low-level warm air advection to push toward 26°C, as seen in the past 24-hour GFS update showing marginal warming. Historical May 1 averages hover near 21°C per long-term records, but current climatological analogs favor the warmer bias. New observational data from Madrid-Barajas station and overnight model runs could sharpen consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$17,227Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:19 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET guidance and ECMWF ensemble forecasts project Madrid's highest temperature on May 1 clustering tightly around 24-25°C under a stable high-pressure ridge promoting abundant sunshine and above-normal early May warmth, driving the near-even trader split between these outcomes at 37% and 40% implied probabilities. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on afternoon cloud development—potentially capping peaks at 24°C—or sustained southerly winds enhancing low-level warm air advection to push toward 26°C, as seen in the past 24-hour GFS update showing marginal warming. Historical May 1 averages hover near 21°C per long-term records, but current climatological analogs favor the warmer bias. New observational data from Madrid-Barajas station and overnight model runs could sharpen consensus before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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