Latest numerical weather prediction ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, corroborated by Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), place Warsaw's highest temperature on May 1 around 19-20°C, driving the tight trader consensus between these outcomes at 45.5% and 38.5% implied probabilities. This reflects an influx of warmer westerly air masses replacing today's cool, cloudy conditions (current ~2°C), under a developing high-pressure ridge for mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon boundary layer mixing and cloud cover persistence—ECMWF leans slightly cooler with partial overcast risks, while GFS outliers push toward 21°C under optimal heating. Historical early-May averages (~16-18°C) underscore the above-normal setup; overnight updates and morning soundings could tip the balance before peak heating.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 1?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 1?
20°C 45%
19°C 40%
21°C 12%
18°C 5.7%
NUEVO
$24,074 Vol.
NUEVO
$24,074 Vol.
1 may 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
6%
19°C
40%
20°C
45%
21°C
12%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 45%
19°C 40%
21°C 12%
18°C 5.7%
NUEVO
$24,074 Vol.
NUEVO
$24,074 Vol.
1 may 2026
15°C or below
$1,317 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$793 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$2,724 Vol.
1%
18°C
$3,260 Vol.
6%
19°C
$3,199 Vol.
40%
20°C
$2,893 Vol.
45%
21°C
$3,284 Vol.
12%
22°C
$4,089 Vol.
1%
23°C
$1,474 Vol.
1%
24°C
$570 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$575 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest numerical weather prediction ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, corroborated by Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), place Warsaw's highest temperature on May 1 around 19-20°C, driving the tight trader consensus between these outcomes at 45.5% and 38.5% implied probabilities. This reflects an influx of warmer westerly air masses replacing today's cool, cloudy conditions (current ~2°C), under a developing high-pressure ridge for mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon boundary layer mixing and cloud cover persistence—ECMWF leans slightly cooler with partial overcast risks, while GFS outliers push toward 21°C under optimal heating. Historical early-May averages (~16-18°C) underscore the above-normal setup; overnight updates and morning soundings could tip the balance before peak heating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:35 AM ET
Volumen
$24,074Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:35 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest numerical weather prediction ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, corroborated by Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), place Warsaw's highest temperature on May 1 around 19-20°C, driving the tight trader consensus between these outcomes at 45.5% and 38.5% implied probabilities. This reflects an influx of warmer westerly air masses replacing today's cool, cloudy conditions (current ~2°C), under a developing high-pressure ridge for mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon boundary layer mixing and cloud cover persistence—ECMWF leans slightly cooler with partial overcast risks, while GFS outliers push toward 21°C under optimal heating. Historical early-May averages (~16-18°C) underscore the above-normal setup; overnight updates and morning soundings could tip the balance before peak heating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$24,074Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:35 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, corroborated by Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), place Warsaw's highest temperature on May 1 around 19-20°C, driving the tight trader consensus between these outcomes at 45.5% and 38.5% implied probabilities. This reflects an influx of warmer westerly air masses replacing today's cool, cloudy conditions (current ~2°C), under a developing high-pressure ridge for mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon boundary layer mixing and cloud cover persistence—ECMWF leans slightly cooler with partial overcast risks, while GFS outliers push toward 21°C under optimal heating. Historical early-May averages (~16-18°C) underscore the above-normal setup; overnight updates and morning soundings could tip the balance before peak heating.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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