Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45% implied probability for a 60-61°F high temperature at San Francisco International Airport (SFO)—the market's official resolution source—driven by National Weather Service forecasts showing persistent marine layer stratus and moderate onshore winds limiting diurnal heating tomorrow. Recent observations confirm strengthening low clouds and fog along the coast after weeks of rain, with past week's highs averaging low 60s°F amid cool Pacific air advection and sea surface temperatures near 55°F. While May climatology averages 64-67°F highs, current model consensus (GFS, ECMWF analogs) favors subdued warming, though partial afternoon clearing introduces uncertainty that could tip toward 62-63°F (29%). New hourly updates from NOAA stations will refine trajectories before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in San Francisco on May 2?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 2?
60-61°F 46%
62-63°F 29%
58-59°F 8%
64-65°F 6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
49°F or below
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
4%
58-59°F
8%
60-61°F
46%
62-63°F
29%
64-65°F
6%
66-67°F
2%
68°F or higher
1%
60-61°F 46%
62-63°F 29%
58-59°F 8%
64-65°F 6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
49°F or below
$1,101 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$783 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$1,314 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$1,245 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$429 Vol.
4%
58-59°F
$429 Vol.
8%
60-61°F
$1,054 Vol.
46%
62-63°F
$676 Vol.
29%
64-65°F
$570 Vol.
6%
66-67°F
$491 Vol.
2%
68°F or higher
$480 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45% implied probability for a 60-61°F high temperature at San Francisco International Airport (SFO)—the market's official resolution source—driven by National Weather Service forecasts showing persistent marine layer stratus and moderate onshore winds limiting diurnal heating tomorrow. Recent observations confirm strengthening low clouds and fog along the coast after weeks of rain, with past week's highs averaging low 60s°F amid cool Pacific air advection and sea surface temperatures near 55°F. While May climatology averages 64-67°F highs, current model consensus (GFS, ECMWF analogs) favors subdued warming, though partial afternoon clearing introduces uncertainty that could tip toward 62-63°F (29%). New hourly updates from NOAA stations will refine trajectories before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$8,568Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45% implied probability for a 60-61°F high temperature at San Francisco International Airport (SFO)—the market's official resolution source—driven by National Weather Service forecasts showing persistent marine layer stratus and moderate onshore winds limiting diurnal heating tomorrow. Recent observations confirm strengthening low clouds and fog along the coast after weeks of rain, with past week's highs averaging low 60s°F amid cool Pacific air advection and sea surface temperatures near 55°F. While May climatology averages 64-67°F highs, current model consensus (GFS, ECMWF analogs) favors subdued warming, though partial afternoon clearing introduces uncertainty that could tip toward 62-63°F (29%). New hourly updates from NOAA stations will refine trajectories before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$8,568Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45% implied probability for a 60-61°F high temperature at San Francisco International Airport (SFO)—the market's official resolution source—driven by National Weather Service forecasts showing persistent marine layer stratus and moderate onshore winds limiting diurnal heating tomorrow. Recent observations confirm strengthening low clouds and fog along the coast after weeks of rain, with past week's highs averaging low 60s°F amid cool Pacific air advection and sea surface temperatures near 55°F. While May climatology averages 64-67°F highs, current model consensus (GFS, ECMWF analogs) favors subdued warming, though partial afternoon clearing introduces uncertainty that could tip toward 62-63°F (29%). New hourly updates from NOAA stations will refine trajectories before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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