Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast model ensembles for Munich's highest temperature on May 2, with ECMWF and GFS runs showing a spread of 24–26°C under a high-pressure ridge bringing clear skies, light winds, and strong daytime insolation. The 38.6% implied probability for 26°C or higher stems from warmer ensemble members featuring subsidence warming and minimal cloud cover, while 37.5% on exactly 25°C aligns with consensus highs around 25°C from DWD-influenced guidance and sites like AccuWeather (77°F/25°C) and TimeandDate (76°F/24.4°C). Slightly cooler 24°C odds (23%) account for potential high cloud or boundary-layer capping; today's mild ~20°C at Munich Airport sets a baseline above May's 18°C climatological average, with final DWD updates and tomorrow's observations key to resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Munich on May 2?
Highest temperature in Munich on May 2?
26°C or higher 39.8%
25°C 39%
24°C 23%
23°C 3.5%
NUEVO
$23,370 Vol.
NUEVO
$23,370 Vol.
2 may 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
23%
25°C
39%
26°C or higher
40%
26°C or higher 39.8%
25°C 39%
24°C 23%
23°C 3.5%
NUEVO
$23,370 Vol.
NUEVO
$23,370 Vol.
2 may 2026
16°C or below
$1,512 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$824 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,353 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,948 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,790 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,888 Vol.
1%
22°C
$4,405 Vol.
1%
23°C
$1,934 Vol.
3%
24°C
$1,864 Vol.
23%
25°C
$1,642 Vol.
39%
26°C or higher
$2,236 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast model ensembles for Munich's highest temperature on May 2, with ECMWF and GFS runs showing a spread of 24–26°C under a high-pressure ridge bringing clear skies, light winds, and strong daytime insolation. The 38.6% implied probability for 26°C or higher stems from warmer ensemble members featuring subsidence warming and minimal cloud cover, while 37.5% on exactly 25°C aligns with consensus highs around 25°C from DWD-influenced guidance and sites like AccuWeather (77°F/25°C) and TimeandDate (76°F/24.4°C). Slightly cooler 24°C odds (23%) account for potential high cloud or boundary-layer capping; today's mild ~20°C at Munich Airport sets a baseline above May's 18°C climatological average, with final DWD updates and tomorrow's observations key to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$23,370Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast model ensembles for Munich's highest temperature on May 2, with ECMWF and GFS runs showing a spread of 24–26°C under a high-pressure ridge bringing clear skies, light winds, and strong daytime insolation. The 38.6% implied probability for 26°C or higher stems from warmer ensemble members featuring subsidence warming and minimal cloud cover, while 37.5% on exactly 25°C aligns with consensus highs around 25°C from DWD-influenced guidance and sites like AccuWeather (77°F/25°C) and TimeandDate (76°F/24.4°C). Slightly cooler 24°C odds (23%) account for potential high cloud or boundary-layer capping; today's mild ~20°C at Munich Airport sets a baseline above May's 18°C climatological average, with final DWD updates and tomorrow's observations key to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$23,370Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast model ensembles for Munich's highest temperature on May 2, with ECMWF and GFS runs showing a spread of 24–26°C under a high-pressure ridge bringing clear skies, light winds, and strong daytime insolation. The 38.6% implied probability for 26°C or higher stems from warmer ensemble members featuring subsidence warming and minimal cloud cover, while 37.5% on exactly 25°C aligns with consensus highs around 25°C from DWD-influenced guidance and sites like AccuWeather (77°F/25°C) and TimeandDate (76°F/24.4°C). Slightly cooler 24°C odds (23%) account for potential high cloud or boundary-layer capping; today's mild ~20°C at Munich Airport sets a baseline above May's 18°C climatological average, with final DWD updates and tomorrow's observations key to resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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