Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 28°C or higher (99.6% implied probability) for Mexico City's highest temperature on May 1, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international models like those aggregated by AccuWeather, projecting a peak of 31–33°C amid clear skies and persistent high-pressure ridging. This positioning reflects ongoing dry-season heat trends, with minimal cloud cover, low humidity, and the urban heat island effect amplifying temperatures at Benito Juárez International Airport—the market's resolution site—where May averages hover around 25°C but current conditions mirror recent heat wave patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon thunderstorms from an approaching frontal boundary or model busts in short-range guidance, though model ensembles show strong agreement with little downside risk before evening observations finalize the record.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Mexico City on May 1?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 1?
28°C or higher 99.5%
27°C <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$9,561 Vol.
$9,561 Vol.
1 may 2026
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
100%
28°C or higher 99.5%
27°C <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$9,561 Vol.
$9,561 Vol.
1 may 2026
21°C
$120 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$153 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$153 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$153 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,764 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,148 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$2,225 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$2,375 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 28°C or higher (99.6% implied probability) for Mexico City's highest temperature on May 1, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international models like those aggregated by AccuWeather, projecting a peak of 31–33°C amid clear skies and persistent high-pressure ridging. This positioning reflects ongoing dry-season heat trends, with minimal cloud cover, low humidity, and the urban heat island effect amplifying temperatures at Benito Juárez International Airport—the market's resolution site—where May averages hover around 25°C but current conditions mirror recent heat wave patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon thunderstorms from an approaching frontal boundary or model busts in short-range guidance, though model ensembles show strong agreement with little downside risk before evening observations finalize the record.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Volumen
$9,561Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:11 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 28°C or higher (99.6% implied probability) for Mexico City's highest temperature on May 1, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international models like those aggregated by AccuWeather, projecting a peak of 31–33°C amid clear skies and persistent high-pressure ridging. This positioning reflects ongoing dry-season heat trends, with minimal cloud cover, low humidity, and the urban heat island effect amplifying temperatures at Benito Juárez International Airport—the market's resolution site—where May averages hover around 25°C but current conditions mirror recent heat wave patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon thunderstorms from an approaching frontal boundary or model busts in short-range guidance, though model ensembles show strong agreement with little downside risk before evening observations finalize the record.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$9,561Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:11 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 28°C or higher (99.6% implied probability) for Mexico City's highest temperature on May 1, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international models like those aggregated by AccuWeather, projecting a peak of 31–33°C amid clear skies and persistent high-pressure ridging. This positioning reflects ongoing dry-season heat trends, with minimal cloud cover, low humidity, and the urban heat island effect amplifying temperatures at Benito Juárez International Airport—the market's resolution site—where May averages hover around 25°C but current conditions mirror recent heat wave patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon thunderstorms from an approaching frontal boundary or model busts in short-range guidance, though model ensembles show strong agreement with little downside risk before evening observations finalize the record.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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