Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 70.5% implied probability to Mexico City's highest temperature reaching 29°C or higher on May 2, driven by a persistent anticyclonic circulation and heat dome that has dominated central Mexico through late April 2026. Recent observations from Benito Juárez International Airport—the market's likely resolution source—show daily highs hovering at 30–32°C over the past week, with clear skies and low humidity amplifying solar heating despite the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional forecasts indicate continued warm, stable conditions into early May, though model ensembles note minor uncertainty from potential afternoon cloud development. Upcoming SMN briefings today could refine these odds as traders weigh climatological May averages around 26°C against this anomalous warm spell.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Mexico City on May 2?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 2?
29°C or higher 76%
28°C 22%
27°C 3.5%
26°C <1%
NUEVO
$27,157 Vol.
NUEVO
$27,157 Vol.
2 may 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
22%
29°C or higher
76%
29°C or higher 76%
28°C 22%
27°C 3.5%
26°C <1%
NUEVO
$27,157 Vol.
NUEVO
$27,157 Vol.
2 may 2026
19°C or below
$2,938 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,141 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,863 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$2,460 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$7,361 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$4,976 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$796 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,315 Vol.
1%
27°C
$585 Vol.
3%
28°C
$1,349 Vol.
22%
29°C or higher
$1,414 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 70.5% implied probability to Mexico City's highest temperature reaching 29°C or higher on May 2, driven by a persistent anticyclonic circulation and heat dome that has dominated central Mexico through late April 2026. Recent observations from Benito Juárez International Airport—the market's likely resolution source—show daily highs hovering at 30–32°C over the past week, with clear skies and low humidity amplifying solar heating despite the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional forecasts indicate continued warm, stable conditions into early May, though model ensembles note minor uncertainty from potential afternoon cloud development. Upcoming SMN briefings today could refine these odds as traders weigh climatological May averages around 26°C against this anomalous warm spell.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Volumen
$27,157Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:13 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 70.5% implied probability to Mexico City's highest temperature reaching 29°C or higher on May 2, driven by a persistent anticyclonic circulation and heat dome that has dominated central Mexico through late April 2026. Recent observations from Benito Juárez International Airport—the market's likely resolution source—show daily highs hovering at 30–32°C over the past week, with clear skies and low humidity amplifying solar heating despite the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional forecasts indicate continued warm, stable conditions into early May, though model ensembles note minor uncertainty from potential afternoon cloud development. Upcoming SMN briefings today could refine these odds as traders weigh climatological May averages around 26°C against this anomalous warm spell.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$27,157Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:13 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 70.5% implied probability to Mexico City's highest temperature reaching 29°C or higher on May 2, driven by a persistent anticyclonic circulation and heat dome that has dominated central Mexico through late April 2026. Recent observations from Benito Juárez International Airport—the market's likely resolution source—show daily highs hovering at 30–32°C over the past week, with clear skies and low humidity amplifying solar heating despite the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional forecasts indicate continued warm, stable conditions into early May, though model ensembles note minor uncertainty from potential afternoon cloud development. Upcoming SMN briefings today could refine these odds as traders weigh climatological May averages around 26°C against this anomalous warm spell.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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