Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model clustering around 20-21°C for Madrid's highest temperature on May 3, with 20°C (26.5%) edging 21°C (24.5%) amid a 19.5% chance for 22°C, driven by the latest AEMET and ECMWF guidance showing mild highs under variable spring conditions. Recent developments include persistent Atlantic instability bringing showers through May 1-3, as noted in preliminary outlooks, suppressing peaks from historical early-May averages of 20-22°C while cloud cover introduces 1-2°C ensemble spread across GFS and European models. Key differentiators are frontal timing and diurnal heating potential; official AEMET updates and 12z model runs on May 2 will likely refine probabilities before resolution at Madrid-Barajas station.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on May 3?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 3?
21°C 38%
20°C 35%
22°C 15%
19°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 may 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
12%
20°C
35%
21°C
38%
22°C
15%
23°C
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
1%
21°C 38%
20°C 35%
22°C 15%
19°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 may 2026
16°C or below
$345 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$130 Vol.
1%
18°C
$54 Vol.
2%
19°C
$75 Vol.
12%
20°C
$158 Vol.
35%
21°C
$82 Vol.
38%
22°C
$54 Vol.
15%
23°C
$20 Vol.
2%
24°C
$10 Vol.
3%
25°C
$20 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$276 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model clustering around 20-21°C for Madrid's highest temperature on May 3, with 20°C (26.5%) edging 21°C (24.5%) amid a 19.5% chance for 22°C, driven by the latest AEMET and ECMWF guidance showing mild highs under variable spring conditions. Recent developments include persistent Atlantic instability bringing showers through May 1-3, as noted in preliminary outlooks, suppressing peaks from historical early-May averages of 20-22°C while cloud cover introduces 1-2°C ensemble spread across GFS and European models. Key differentiators are frontal timing and diurnal heating potential; official AEMET updates and 12z model runs on May 2 will likely refine probabilities before resolution at Madrid-Barajas station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 1, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$1,224Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 1, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model clustering around 20-21°C for Madrid's highest temperature on May 3, with 20°C (26.5%) edging 21°C (24.5%) amid a 19.5% chance for 22°C, driven by the latest AEMET and ECMWF guidance showing mild highs under variable spring conditions. Recent developments include persistent Atlantic instability bringing showers through May 1-3, as noted in preliminary outlooks, suppressing peaks from historical early-May averages of 20-22°C while cloud cover introduces 1-2°C ensemble spread across GFS and European models. Key differentiators are frontal timing and diurnal heating potential; official AEMET updates and 12z model runs on May 2 will likely refine probabilities before resolution at Madrid-Barajas station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,224Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 1, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model clustering around 20-21°C for Madrid's highest temperature on May 3, with 20°C (26.5%) edging 21°C (24.5%) amid a 19.5% chance for 22°C, driven by the latest AEMET and ECMWF guidance showing mild highs under variable spring conditions. Recent developments include persistent Atlantic instability bringing showers through May 1-3, as noted in preliminary outlooks, suppressing peaks from historical early-May averages of 20-22°C while cloud cover introduces 1-2°C ensemble spread across GFS and European models. Key differentiators are frontal timing and diurnal heating potential; official AEMET updates and 12z model runs on May 2 will likely refine probabilities before resolution at Madrid-Barajas station.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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