Latest AEMET guidance projects a 23°C maximum for Madrid on May 1 under clear skies and 0% precipitation probability, yet trader consensus favors 25°C (40%) and 24°C (35%) as implied probabilities, driven by ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering at 24-25°C amid a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia advecting warmer southerly air masses. Subtle model divergences in afternoon boundary layer mixing and low-level cloud timing account for the tight 1°C spread differentiating these outcomes, with historical May 1 highs averaging 21°C at Madrid-Barajas but current above-normal anomalies persisting. New 12Z ECMWF/GFS runs and AEMET's intraday hourly updates later today could refine this short-range uncertainty before official observations resolve the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on May 1?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 1?
25°C 40%
24°C 36%
26°C 13%
23°C 7%
NUEVO
$30,146 Vol.
NUEVO
$30,146 Vol.
1 may 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
7%
24°C
36%
25°C
40%
26°C
13%
27°C
2%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 40%
24°C 36%
26°C 13%
23°C 7%
NUEVO
$30,146 Vol.
NUEVO
$30,146 Vol.
1 may 2026
19°C or below
$1,622 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$708 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$5,308 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$3,998 Vol.
1%
23°C
$3,754 Vol.
7%
24°C
$4,256 Vol.
36%
25°C
$2,965 Vol.
40%
26°C
$3,536 Vol.
13%
27°C
$1,276 Vol.
2%
28°C
$1,567 Vol.
1%
29°C or higher
$1,360 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET guidance projects a 23°C maximum for Madrid on May 1 under clear skies and 0% precipitation probability, yet trader consensus favors 25°C (40%) and 24°C (35%) as implied probabilities, driven by ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering at 24-25°C amid a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia advecting warmer southerly air masses. Subtle model divergences in afternoon boundary layer mixing and low-level cloud timing account for the tight 1°C spread differentiating these outcomes, with historical May 1 highs averaging 21°C at Madrid-Barajas but current above-normal anomalies persisting. New 12Z ECMWF/GFS runs and AEMET's intraday hourly updates later today could refine this short-range uncertainty before official observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
Volumen
$30,146Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:19 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET guidance projects a 23°C maximum for Madrid on May 1 under clear skies and 0% precipitation probability, yet trader consensus favors 25°C (40%) and 24°C (35%) as implied probabilities, driven by ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering at 24-25°C amid a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia advecting warmer southerly air masses. Subtle model divergences in afternoon boundary layer mixing and low-level cloud timing account for the tight 1°C spread differentiating these outcomes, with historical May 1 highs averaging 21°C at Madrid-Barajas but current above-normal anomalies persisting. New 12Z ECMWF/GFS runs and AEMET's intraday hourly updates later today could refine this short-range uncertainty before official observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$30,146Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:19 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET guidance projects a 23°C maximum for Madrid on May 1 under clear skies and 0% precipitation probability, yet trader consensus favors 25°C (40%) and 24°C (35%) as implied probabilities, driven by ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering at 24-25°C amid a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia advecting warmer southerly air masses. Subtle model divergences in afternoon boundary layer mixing and low-level cloud timing account for the tight 1°C spread differentiating these outcomes, with historical May 1 highs averaging 21°C at Madrid-Barajas but current above-normal anomalies persisting. New 12Z ECMWF/GFS runs and AEMET's intraday hourly updates later today could refine this short-range uncertainty before official observations resolve the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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