Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 35°C high in Lagos on May 3 at 49.5% implied probability, driven by recent observational data showing April peaks exceeding 35°C and early May highs around 32-33°C amid lingering dry-season heat, as reported by NiMet and global models like those on AccuWeather projecting 33-34°C peaks with light rain. The close competition from 31-34°C outcomes (35-35.5%) reflects scientific uncertainty in the rainy season onset, where shifting Intertropical Convergence Zone position, high humidity (80-90%), and partial cloud cover could cap intensification, per NiMet's 2026 seasonal predictions of an early but variable wet period. Historical May averages hover at 31°C, but current patterns—moderate southerly winds and urban heat island effects—bolster upside risk; watch NiMet's daily bulletin tomorrow for refined guidance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Lagos on May 3?
Highest temperature in Lagos on May 3?
34°C 28%
33°C 18%
35°C 18%
31°C 15%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 may 2026
27°C or below
4%
28°C
4%
29°C
5%
30°C
6%
31°C
15%
32°C
15%
33°C
18%
34°C
28%
35°C
18%
36°C
5%
37°C or higher
6%
34°C 28%
33°C 18%
35°C 18%
31°C 15%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 may 2026
27°C or below
$135 Vol.
4%
28°C
$0 Vol.
4%
29°C
$0 Vol.
5%
30°C
$0 Vol.
6%
31°C
$0 Vol.
15%
32°C
$0 Vol.
15%
33°C
$0 Vol.
18%
34°C
$0 Vol.
28%
35°C
$0 Vol.
18%
36°C
$0 Vol.
5%
37°C or higher
$88 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 35°C high in Lagos on May 3 at 49.5% implied probability, driven by recent observational data showing April peaks exceeding 35°C and early May highs around 32-33°C amid lingering dry-season heat, as reported by NiMet and global models like those on AccuWeather projecting 33-34°C peaks with light rain. The close competition from 31-34°C outcomes (35-35.5%) reflects scientific uncertainty in the rainy season onset, where shifting Intertropical Convergence Zone position, high humidity (80-90%), and partial cloud cover could cap intensification, per NiMet's 2026 seasonal predictions of an early but variable wet period. Historical May averages hover at 31°C, but current patterns—moderate southerly winds and urban heat island effects—bolster upside risk; watch NiMet's daily bulletin tomorrow for refined guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 1, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volumen
$223Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 1, 2026, 12:18 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 35°C high in Lagos on May 3 at 49.5% implied probability, driven by recent observational data showing April peaks exceeding 35°C and early May highs around 32-33°C amid lingering dry-season heat, as reported by NiMet and global models like those on AccuWeather projecting 33-34°C peaks with light rain. The close competition from 31-34°C outcomes (35-35.5%) reflects scientific uncertainty in the rainy season onset, where shifting Intertropical Convergence Zone position, high humidity (80-90%), and partial cloud cover could cap intensification, per NiMet's 2026 seasonal predictions of an early but variable wet period. Historical May averages hover at 31°C, but current patterns—moderate southerly winds and urban heat island effects—bolster upside risk; watch NiMet's daily bulletin tomorrow for refined guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$223Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 1, 2026, 12:18 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 35°C high in Lagos on May 3 at 49.5% implied probability, driven by recent observational data showing April peaks exceeding 35°C and early May highs around 32-33°C amid lingering dry-season heat, as reported by NiMet and global models like those on AccuWeather projecting 33-34°C peaks with light rain. The close competition from 31-34°C outcomes (35-35.5%) reflects scientific uncertainty in the rainy season onset, where shifting Intertropical Convergence Zone position, high humidity (80-90%), and partial cloud cover could cap intensification, per NiMet's 2026 seasonal predictions of an early but variable wet period. Historical May averages hover at 31°C, but current patterns—moderate southerly winds and urban heat island effects—bolster upside risk; watch NiMet's daily bulletin tomorrow for refined guidance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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