Ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF project Lagos highs near 33–34°C on May 1, driving trader consensus with 34°C holding a slim 33.5% implied probability edge over 33°C at 25%, amid close competition reflecting model spread. Recent NiMet advisories highlight intensifying afternoon thunderstorms across southern Nigeria, including Lagos, potentially capping peaks through increased cloud cover and precipitation, while persistent April warmth—recent daily highs averaging 32–33°C—supports the upside bias. Differentiating factors include precise sea breeze timing, urban heat island effects in Lagos, and morning humidity levels; historical early-May climatology averages 31–32°C, but current neutral ENSO conditions allow variability. NiMet's next daily bulletin will refine guidance as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Lagos el 1 de mayo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Lagos el 1 de mayo?
34°C 32%
33°C 25%
35°C 14%
32°C 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 may 2026
28°C o menos
3%
29°C
2%
30°C
3%
31°C
9%
32°C
13%
33°C
25%
34°C
32%
35°C
14%
36°C
5%
37°C
2%
38°C o más
<1%
34°C 32%
33°C 25%
35°C 14%
32°C 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 may 2026
28°C o menos
$902 Vol.
3%
29°C
$333 Vol.
2%
30°C
$195 Vol.
3%
31°C
$198 Vol.
9%
32°C
$346 Vol.
13%
33°C
$317 Vol.
25%
34°C
$202 Vol.
32%
35°C
$111 Vol.
14%
36°C
$357 Vol.
5%
37°C
$344 Vol.
2%
38°C o más
$1,192 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF project Lagos highs near 33–34°C on May 1, driving trader consensus with 34°C holding a slim 33.5% implied probability edge over 33°C at 25%, amid close competition reflecting model spread. Recent NiMet advisories highlight intensifying afternoon thunderstorms across southern Nigeria, including Lagos, potentially capping peaks through increased cloud cover and precipitation, while persistent April warmth—recent daily highs averaging 32–33°C—supports the upside bias. Differentiating factors include precise sea breeze timing, urban heat island effects in Lagos, and morning humidity levels; historical early-May climatology averages 31–32°C, but current neutral ENSO conditions allow variability. NiMet's next daily bulletin will refine guidance as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volumen
$4,487Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:12 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF project Lagos highs near 33–34°C on May 1, driving trader consensus with 34°C holding a slim 33.5% implied probability edge over 33°C at 25%, amid close competition reflecting model spread. Recent NiMet advisories highlight intensifying afternoon thunderstorms across southern Nigeria, including Lagos, potentially capping peaks through increased cloud cover and precipitation, while persistent April warmth—recent daily highs averaging 32–33°C—supports the upside bias. Differentiating factors include precise sea breeze timing, urban heat island effects in Lagos, and morning humidity levels; historical early-May climatology averages 31–32°C, but current neutral ENSO conditions allow variability. NiMet's next daily bulletin will refine guidance as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$4,487Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:12 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF project Lagos highs near 33–34°C on May 1, driving trader consensus with 34°C holding a slim 33.5% implied probability edge over 33°C at 25%, amid close competition reflecting model spread. Recent NiMet advisories highlight intensifying afternoon thunderstorms across southern Nigeria, including Lagos, potentially capping peaks through increased cloud cover and precipitation, while persistent April warmth—recent daily highs averaging 32–33°C—supports the upside bias. Differentiating factors include precise sea breeze timing, urban heat island effects in Lagos, and morning humidity levels; historical early-May climatology averages 31–32°C, but current neutral ENSO conditions allow variability. NiMet's next daily bulletin will refine guidance as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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