Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 11°C at Istanbul Airport (99.2% implied probability), driven by the latest forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which show persistent cloud cover, showers, and northerly winds capping daytime highs amid a sharp cold snap that began late April. Current observations already hover near 11°C with thick overcast skies and precipitation suppressing warming, well below May climatological averages of 20°C. This strong model agreement reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of limited solar heating potential. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing or a southward wind shift, potentially pushing maxima to 12°C before evening, though probabilities remain slim per ensemble guidance. Resolution awaits official NOAA Airport data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 1?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 1?
11°C 99.0%
12°C 1.3%
16°C <1%
13°C <1%
$40,805 Vol.
$40,805 Vol.
1 may 2026
11°C
99%
12°C
1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
11°C 99.0%
12°C 1.3%
16°C <1%
13°C <1%
$40,805 Vol.
$40,805 Vol.
1 may 2026
11°C
$6,890 Vol.
99%
12°C
$3,827 Vol.
1%
13°C
$4,844 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$2,884 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$2,145 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$3,790 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$388 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 11°C at Istanbul Airport (99.2% implied probability), driven by the latest forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which show persistent cloud cover, showers, and northerly winds capping daytime highs amid a sharp cold snap that began late April. Current observations already hover near 11°C with thick overcast skies and precipitation suppressing warming, well below May climatological averages of 20°C. This strong model agreement reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of limited solar heating potential. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing or a southward wind shift, potentially pushing maxima to 12°C before evening, though probabilities remain slim per ensemble guidance. Resolution awaits official NOAA Airport data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volumen
$40,805Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 11°C at Istanbul Airport (99.2% implied probability), driven by the latest forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which show persistent cloud cover, showers, and northerly winds capping daytime highs amid a sharp cold snap that began late April. Current observations already hover near 11°C with thick overcast skies and precipitation suppressing warming, well below May climatological averages of 20°C. This strong model agreement reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of limited solar heating potential. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing or a southward wind shift, potentially pushing maxima to 12°C before evening, though probabilities remain slim per ensemble guidance. Resolution awaits official NOAA Airport data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$40,805Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 11°C at Istanbul Airport (99.2% implied probability), driven by the latest forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which show persistent cloud cover, showers, and northerly winds capping daytime highs amid a sharp cold snap that began late April. Current observations already hover near 11°C with thick overcast skies and precipitation suppressing warming, well below May climatological averages of 20°C. This strong model agreement reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of limited solar heating potential. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing or a southward wind shift, potentially pushing maxima to 12°C before evening, though probabilities remain slim per ensemble guidance. Resolution awaits official NOAA Airport data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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