Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Chongqing's May 3 highest temperature at Jiangbei International Airport, with implied probabilities clustered at 20.5–28.5% for 22–25°C amid divergent China Meteorological Administration, GFS, and ECMWF model runs. Persistent low-level cloudiness and light showers from the early East Asian monsoon onset—following rainfall that capped May 1–2 highs below seasonal norms—limit solar heating and daytime warming, favoring sub-27°C outcomes over the typical May average of 27°C. Key differentiators include potential afternoon clearing in ECMWF versus sustained overcast in GFS; new model updates and CMA advisories expected within 24 hours could sharpen the outlook before resolution.