Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 27°C (38%) and 28°C (35%) for Beijing's highest temperature on May 1, driven by the latest forecast ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like GFS, projecting peaks of 26-28°C amid a warm late-April high-pressure ridge. This reflects persistent above-average spring temperatures linked to a weakening La Niña and emerging moderate El Niño conditions, which have elevated East Asian sea surface temperatures and advection of southerly air masses. Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover reducing insolation versus urban heat island effects and boundary layer mixing pushing highs higher; historical early-May averages hover at 24-26°C, but recent days exceeded 27°C. Key updates expected from CMA hourly observations through afternoon landfall of peak heat.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on May 1?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 1?
27°C 36%
28°C 36%
26°C 22%
29°C 8%
NUEVO
$37,765 Vol.
NUEVO
$37,765 Vol.
1 may 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
22%
27°C
36%
28°C
36%
29°C
8%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 36%
28°C 36%
26°C 22%
29°C 8%
NUEVO
$37,765 Vol.
NUEVO
$37,765 Vol.
1 may 2026
23°C or below
$5,493 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$3,710 Vol.
1%
25°C
$5,357 Vol.
2%
26°C
$2,769 Vol.
22%
27°C
$3,023 Vol.
36%
28°C
$1,891 Vol.
36%
29°C
$1,981 Vol.
8%
30°C
$4,004 Vol.
1%
31°C
$4,987 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$2,947 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$1,627 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 27°C (38%) and 28°C (35%) for Beijing's highest temperature on May 1, driven by the latest forecast ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like GFS, projecting peaks of 26-28°C amid a warm late-April high-pressure ridge. This reflects persistent above-average spring temperatures linked to a weakening La Niña and emerging moderate El Niño conditions, which have elevated East Asian sea surface temperatures and advection of southerly air masses. Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover reducing insolation versus urban heat island effects and boundary layer mixing pushing highs higher; historical early-May averages hover at 24-26°C, but recent days exceeded 27°C. Key updates expected from CMA hourly observations through afternoon landfall of peak heat.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
Volumen
$37,765Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:15 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 27°C (38%) and 28°C (35%) for Beijing's highest temperature on May 1, driven by the latest forecast ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like GFS, projecting peaks of 26-28°C amid a warm late-April high-pressure ridge. This reflects persistent above-average spring temperatures linked to a weakening La Niña and emerging moderate El Niño conditions, which have elevated East Asian sea surface temperatures and advection of southerly air masses. Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover reducing insolation versus urban heat island effects and boundary layer mixing pushing highs higher; historical early-May averages hover at 24-26°C, but recent days exceeded 27°C. Key updates expected from CMA hourly observations through afternoon landfall of peak heat.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$37,765Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:15 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 27°C (38%) and 28°C (35%) for Beijing's highest temperature on May 1, driven by the latest forecast ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like GFS, projecting peaks of 26-28°C amid a warm late-April high-pressure ridge. This reflects persistent above-average spring temperatures linked to a weakening La Niña and emerging moderate El Niño conditions, which have elevated East Asian sea surface temperatures and advection of southerly air masses. Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover reducing insolation versus urban heat island effects and boundary layer mixing pushing highs higher; historical early-May averages hover at 24-26°C, but recent days exceeded 27°C. Key updates expected from CMA hourly observations through afternoon landfall of peak heat.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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