Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 15°C in Ankara on May 1, anchored by official observational data from the Esenboğa International Airport station, as reported by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. Persistent overcast skies, light showers, and a cool air mass from northerly flows suppressed daytime heating well below May climatological norms of around 20°C, with hourly METAR reports confirming the peak at 15°C amid low sun angles typical for early spring. This positioning reflects verified measurements rather than forecasts, with negligible uncertainty; only a rare data audit or station malfunction verification could realistically challenge resolution, though historical precedents show such revisions are infrequent for routine synoptic observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Ankara on May 1?
Highest temperature in Ankara on May 1?
15°C 100.0%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$80,151 Vol.
$80,151 Vol.
1 may 2026
15°C
100%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
15°C 100.0%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$80,151 Vol.
$80,151 Vol.
1 may 2026
15°C
$19,851 Vol.
100%
16°C
$9,532 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$7,701 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$6,986 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$5,726 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$3,700 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$4,969 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 15°C in Ankara on May 1, anchored by official observational data from the Esenboğa International Airport station, as reported by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. Persistent overcast skies, light showers, and a cool air mass from northerly flows suppressed daytime heating well below May climatological norms of around 20°C, with hourly METAR reports confirming the peak at 15°C amid low sun angles typical for early spring. This positioning reflects verified measurements rather than forecasts, with negligible uncertainty; only a rare data audit or station malfunction verification could realistically challenge resolution, though historical precedents show such revisions are infrequent for routine synoptic observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volumen
$80,151Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: Yes
Ventana de disputas
Final
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 15°C in Ankara on May 1, anchored by official observational data from the Esenboğa International Airport station, as reported by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. Persistent overcast skies, light showers, and a cool air mass from northerly flows suppressed daytime heating well below May climatological norms of around 20°C, with hourly METAR reports confirming the peak at 15°C amid low sun angles typical for early spring. This positioning reflects verified measurements rather than forecasts, with negligible uncertainty; only a rare data audit or station malfunction verification could realistically challenge resolution, though historical precedents show such revisions are infrequent for routine synoptic observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$80,151Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: Yes
Ventana de disputas
Final
Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 15°C in Ankara on May 1, anchored by official observational data from the Esenboğa International Airport station, as reported by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. Persistent overcast skies, light showers, and a cool air mass from northerly flows suppressed daytime heating well below May climatological norms of around 20°C, with hourly METAR reports confirming the peak at 15°C amid low sun angles typical for early spring. This positioning reflects verified measurements rather than forecasts, with negligible uncertainty; only a rare data audit or station malfunction verification could realistically challenge resolution, though historical precedents show such revisions are infrequent for routine synoptic observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes