Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts centering Ankara's May 2 highest temperature at 8–9°C, driven by an Arctic cold air intrusion funneled through a persistent omega block over Eastern Europe, which has suppressed highs well below the typical May average of 18–20°C. Overcast skies blocking solar heating, northerly winds limiting diurnal warming, and a 40–50% chance of drizzle further cap peaks, with Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance aligning near 10°C under high humidity. The tight race between 8°C (35%), 9°C (31.5%), and 7°C (22%) stems from model spread: cooler outcomes if clouds persist or showers intensify, warmer if brief clearing emerges midday. Watch MGM's final update and early observations for resolution shifts amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Ankara on May 2?
Highest temperature in Ankara on May 2?
8°C 35%
9°C 32%
7°C 22%
6°C 8.3%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
3°C or below
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
1%
6°C
8%
7°C
22%
8°C
35%
9°C
32%
10°C
8%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C or higher
1%
8°C 35%
9°C 32%
7°C 22%
6°C 8.3%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
3°C or below
$845 Vol.
<1%
4°C
$954 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$606 Vol.
1%
6°C
$239 Vol.
8%
7°C
$593 Vol.
22%
8°C
$426 Vol.
35%
9°C
$654 Vol.
32%
10°C
$571 Vol.
8%
11°C
$1,068 Vol.
1%
12°C
$787 Vol.
1%
13°C or higher
$918 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts centering Ankara's May 2 highest temperature at 8–9°C, driven by an Arctic cold air intrusion funneled through a persistent omega block over Eastern Europe, which has suppressed highs well below the typical May average of 18–20°C. Overcast skies blocking solar heating, northerly winds limiting diurnal warming, and a 40–50% chance of drizzle further cap peaks, with Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance aligning near 10°C under high humidity. The tight race between 8°C (35%), 9°C (31.5%), and 7°C (22%) stems from model spread: cooler outcomes if clouds persist or showers intensify, warmer if brief clearing emerges midday. Watch MGM's final update and early observations for resolution shifts amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$7,226Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts centering Ankara's May 2 highest temperature at 8–9°C, driven by an Arctic cold air intrusion funneled through a persistent omega block over Eastern Europe, which has suppressed highs well below the typical May average of 18–20°C. Overcast skies blocking solar heating, northerly winds limiting diurnal warming, and a 40–50% chance of drizzle further cap peaks, with Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance aligning near 10°C under high humidity. The tight race between 8°C (35%), 9°C (31.5%), and 7°C (22%) stems from model spread: cooler outcomes if clouds persist or showers intensify, warmer if brief clearing emerges midday. Watch MGM's final update and early observations for resolution shifts amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$7,226Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts centering Ankara's May 2 highest temperature at 8–9°C, driven by an Arctic cold air intrusion funneled through a persistent omega block over Eastern Europe, which has suppressed highs well below the typical May average of 18–20°C. Overcast skies blocking solar heating, northerly winds limiting diurnal warming, and a 40–50% chance of drizzle further cap peaks, with Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance aligning near 10°C under high humidity. The tight race between 8°C (35%), 9°C (31.5%), and 7°C (22%) stems from model spread: cooler outcomes if clouds persist or showers intensify, warmer if brief clearing emerges midday. Watch MGM's final update and early observations for resolution shifts amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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