Preliminary data from reanalysis models and daily global trackers position April 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline, driving trader consensus toward the 1.15–1.19°C outcome at 57.5% implied probability. Copernicus marine monitoring confirmed the second-warmest April sea surface temperatures on record at 21.08°C—trailing only 2024—fueled by record equatorial Pacific heat content amid ENSO-neutral conditions shifting toward El Niño. This aligns with year-to-date 2026 averages near 1.49°C, reflecting persistent ocean heat uptake despite no major volcanic cooling. Official bulletins from Copernicus, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth, due mid-May, may refine these estimates amid typical dataset convergence uncertainties.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAbril 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
Abril 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
1,15–1,19ºC 57%
1,10–1,14ºC 29%
1,20–1,24ºC 10%
1,25–1,29 ºC 1.9%
$269,816 Vol.
$269,816 Vol.
10 may 2026
<1,10ºC
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
29%
1,15–1,19ºC
57%
1,20–1,24ºC
10%
1,25–1,29 ºC
2%
>1.29ºC
1%
1,15–1,19ºC 57%
1,10–1,14ºC 29%
1,20–1,24ºC 10%
1,25–1,29 ºC 1.9%
$269,816 Vol.
$269,816 Vol.
10 may 2026
<1,10ºC
$49,411 Vol.
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
$52,902 Vol.
29%
1,15–1,19ºC
$40,755 Vol.
57%
1,20–1,24ºC
$46,744 Vol.
10%
1,25–1,29 ºC
$46,990 Vol.
2%
>1.29ºC
$33,015 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary data from reanalysis models and daily global trackers position April 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline, driving trader consensus toward the 1.15–1.19°C outcome at 57.5% implied probability. Copernicus marine monitoring confirmed the second-warmest April sea surface temperatures on record at 21.08°C—trailing only 2024—fueled by record equatorial Pacific heat content amid ENSO-neutral conditions shifting toward El Niño. This aligns with year-to-date 2026 averages near 1.49°C, reflecting persistent ocean heat uptake despite no major volcanic cooling. Official bulletins from Copernicus, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth, due mid-May, may refine these estimates amid typical dataset convergence uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volumen
$269,816Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary data from reanalysis models and daily global trackers position April 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline, driving trader consensus toward the 1.15–1.19°C outcome at 57.5% implied probability. Copernicus marine monitoring confirmed the second-warmest April sea surface temperatures on record at 21.08°C—trailing only 2024—fueled by record equatorial Pacific heat content amid ENSO-neutral conditions shifting toward El Niño. This aligns with year-to-date 2026 averages near 1.49°C, reflecting persistent ocean heat uptake despite no major volcanic cooling. Official bulletins from Copernicus, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth, due mid-May, may refine these estimates amid typical dataset convergence uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$269,816Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary data from reanalysis models and daily global trackers position April 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline, driving trader consensus toward the 1.15–1.19°C outcome at 57.5% implied probability. Copernicus marine monitoring confirmed the second-warmest April sea surface temperatures on record at 21.08°C—trailing only 2024—fueled by record equatorial Pacific heat content amid ENSO-neutral conditions shifting toward El Niño. This aligns with year-to-date 2026 averages near 1.49°C, reflecting persistent ocean heat uptake despite no major volcanic cooling. Official bulletins from Copernicus, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth, due mid-May, may refine these estimates amid typical dataset convergence uncertainties.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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