Preliminary Copernicus marine data released April 27 shows April 2026 global sea surface temperatures at 21.08°C, the second-warmest April on record after 2024's peak, with record equatorial Pacific warmth at 26.99°C amid 46% ocean marine heatwave coverage—driving trader consensus toward a 1.15–1.19ºC surface air temperature anomaly at 58.5% implied probability. This reflects persistent above-average conditions (76% of ocean SSTs warmer than 1993–2022 climatology) under ENSO-neutral phase transitioning toward El Niño, following March's 1.48ºC pre-industrial anomaly (fourth-warmest March). Model ensembles and year-to-date averages around 1.48ºC support the 1.10–1.24ºC cluster (99.5% combined), though official Copernicus ERA5 bulletin expected early May could refine estimates amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAbril 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
Abril 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
1,15–1,19ºC 59%
1,10–1,14ºC 34%
1,20–1,24ºC 8%
1,25–1,29 ºC 3.0%
$258,006 Vol.
$258,006 Vol.
10 may 2026
<1,10ºC
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
34%
1,15–1,19ºC
59%
1,20–1,24ºC
8%
1,25–1,29 ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
1%
1,15–1,19ºC 59%
1,10–1,14ºC 34%
1,20–1,24ºC 8%
1,25–1,29 ºC 3.0%
$258,006 Vol.
$258,006 Vol.
10 may 2026
<1,10ºC
$48,069 Vol.
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
$49,094 Vol.
34%
1,15–1,19ºC
$37,634 Vol.
59%
1,20–1,24ºC
$45,686 Vol.
8%
1,25–1,29 ºC
$45,488 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$32,036 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary Copernicus marine data released April 27 shows April 2026 global sea surface temperatures at 21.08°C, the second-warmest April on record after 2024's peak, with record equatorial Pacific warmth at 26.99°C amid 46% ocean marine heatwave coverage—driving trader consensus toward a 1.15–1.19ºC surface air temperature anomaly at 58.5% implied probability. This reflects persistent above-average conditions (76% of ocean SSTs warmer than 1993–2022 climatology) under ENSO-neutral phase transitioning toward El Niño, following March's 1.48ºC pre-industrial anomaly (fourth-warmest March). Model ensembles and year-to-date averages around 1.48ºC support the 1.10–1.24ºC cluster (99.5% combined), though official Copernicus ERA5 bulletin expected early May could refine estimates amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volumen
$258,006Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary Copernicus marine data released April 27 shows April 2026 global sea surface temperatures at 21.08°C, the second-warmest April on record after 2024's peak, with record equatorial Pacific warmth at 26.99°C amid 46% ocean marine heatwave coverage—driving trader consensus toward a 1.15–1.19ºC surface air temperature anomaly at 58.5% implied probability. This reflects persistent above-average conditions (76% of ocean SSTs warmer than 1993–2022 climatology) under ENSO-neutral phase transitioning toward El Niño, following March's 1.48ºC pre-industrial anomaly (fourth-warmest March). Model ensembles and year-to-date averages around 1.48ºC support the 1.10–1.24ºC cluster (99.5% combined), though official Copernicus ERA5 bulletin expected early May could refine estimates amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$258,006Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary Copernicus marine data released April 27 shows April 2026 global sea surface temperatures at 21.08°C, the second-warmest April on record after 2024's peak, with record equatorial Pacific warmth at 26.99°C amid 46% ocean marine heatwave coverage—driving trader consensus toward a 1.15–1.19ºC surface air temperature anomaly at 58.5% implied probability. This reflects persistent above-average conditions (76% of ocean SSTs warmer than 1993–2022 climatology) under ENSO-neutral phase transitioning toward El Niño, following March's 1.48ºC pre-industrial anomaly (fourth-warmest March). Model ensembles and year-to-date averages around 1.48ºC support the 1.10–1.24ºC cluster (99.5% combined), though official Copernicus ERA5 bulletin expected early May could refine estimates amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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