Preliminary data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service indicate April 2026 global sea surface temperatures averaged 21.08°C, the second-warmest April on record behind 2024, driving trader consensus toward a 1.15–1.19ºC surface air temperature anomaly above the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline at 57.5% implied probability. This reflects sustained ocean heat content amid ENSO-neutral conditions, with March 2026 ranking as the fourth-warmest globally at +1.48°C above 1991–2020 norms. Model ensembles and real-time reanalyses align on 1.17–1.23ºC, though full surface air bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA, expected mid-May, could refine estimates amid inherent observational uncertainties. Lower bins like <1.10ºC (<1%) face barriers from persistent anthropogenic forcing and minimal La Niña cooling.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAbril 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
Abril 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
1,15–1,19ºC 57%
1,10–1,14ºC 30%
1,20–1,24ºC 10%
1,25–1,29 ºC 1.9%
$269,872 Vol.
$269,872 Vol.
10 may 2026
<1,10ºC
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
30%
1,15–1,19ºC
57%
1,20–1,24ºC
10%
1,25–1,29 ºC
2%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1,15–1,19ºC 57%
1,10–1,14ºC 30%
1,20–1,24ºC 10%
1,25–1,29 ºC 1.9%
$269,872 Vol.
$269,872 Vol.
10 may 2026
<1,10ºC
$49,411 Vol.
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
$52,902 Vol.
30%
1,15–1,19ºC
$40,755 Vol.
57%
1,20–1,24ºC
$46,744 Vol.
10%
1,25–1,29 ºC
$47,045 Vol.
2%
>1.29ºC
$33,015 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service indicate April 2026 global sea surface temperatures averaged 21.08°C, the second-warmest April on record behind 2024, driving trader consensus toward a 1.15–1.19ºC surface air temperature anomaly above the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline at 57.5% implied probability. This reflects sustained ocean heat content amid ENSO-neutral conditions, with March 2026 ranking as the fourth-warmest globally at +1.48°C above 1991–2020 norms. Model ensembles and real-time reanalyses align on 1.17–1.23ºC, though full surface air bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA, expected mid-May, could refine estimates amid inherent observational uncertainties. Lower bins like <1.10ºC (<1%) face barriers from persistent anthropogenic forcing and minimal La Niña cooling.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volumen
$269,872Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service indicate April 2026 global sea surface temperatures averaged 21.08°C, the second-warmest April on record behind 2024, driving trader consensus toward a 1.15–1.19ºC surface air temperature anomaly above the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline at 57.5% implied probability. This reflects sustained ocean heat content amid ENSO-neutral conditions, with March 2026 ranking as the fourth-warmest globally at +1.48°C above 1991–2020 norms. Model ensembles and real-time reanalyses align on 1.17–1.23ºC, though full surface air bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA, expected mid-May, could refine estimates amid inherent observational uncertainties. Lower bins like <1.10ºC (<1%) face barriers from persistent anthropogenic forcing and minimal La Niña cooling.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$269,872Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service indicate April 2026 global sea surface temperatures averaged 21.08°C, the second-warmest April on record behind 2024, driving trader consensus toward a 1.15–1.19ºC surface air temperature anomaly above the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline at 57.5% implied probability. This reflects sustained ocean heat content amid ENSO-neutral conditions, with March 2026 ranking as the fourth-warmest globally at +1.48°C above 1991–2020 norms. Model ensembles and real-time reanalyses align on 1.17–1.23ºC, though full surface air bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA, expected mid-May, could refine estimates amid inherent observational uncertainties. Lower bins like <1.10ºC (<1%) face barriers from persistent anthropogenic forcing and minimal La Niña cooling.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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