Current ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate Shanghai’s maximum temperature on May 22 will most likely fall between 24°C and 26°C, with the market’s near-even pricing between these outcomes reflecting minor but meaningful differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak southerly advection of warmer air. Subtropical high pressure is expected to dominate, limiting strong diurnal heating while scattered high clouds could reduce surface insolation by 10–20 percent in some runs. Historical May climatology for the region shows average daily maxima near 25°C, yet year-to-year variability in May moisture transport can shift peaks by 2–3°C. Updated model guidance tonight and early tomorrow morning will determine whether the final observed high settles at the lower or upper end of this narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 22?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 22?
25°C 25%
24°C 25%
23°C 16%
26°C 16%
NEW
NEW
May 22, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
7%
23°C
16%
24°C
25%
25°C
25%
26°C
16%
27°C
6%
28°C
3%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
25°C 25%
24°C 25%
23°C 16%
26°C 16%
NEW
NEW
May 22, 2026
21°C or below
$698 Vol.
1%
22°C
$848 Vol.
7%
23°C
$523 Vol.
16%
24°C
$885 Vol.
25%
25°C
$153 Vol.
25%
26°C
$422 Vol.
16%
27°C
$591 Vol.
6%
28°C
$421 Vol.
3%
29°C
$132 Vol.
1%
30°C
$108 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$418 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate Shanghai’s maximum temperature on May 22 will most likely fall between 24°C and 26°C, with the market’s near-even pricing between these outcomes reflecting minor but meaningful differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak southerly advection of warmer air. Subtropical high pressure is expected to dominate, limiting strong diurnal heating while scattered high clouds could reduce surface insolation by 10–20 percent in some runs. Historical May climatology for the region shows average daily maxima near 25°C, yet year-to-year variability in May moisture transport can shift peaks by 2–3°C. Updated model guidance tonight and early tomorrow morning will determine whether the final observed high settles at the lower or upper end of this narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 20, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$5,144End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate Shanghai’s maximum temperature on May 22 will most likely fall between 24°C and 26°C, with the market’s near-even pricing between these outcomes reflecting minor but meaningful differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak southerly advection of warmer air. Subtropical high pressure is expected to dominate, limiting strong diurnal heating while scattered high clouds could reduce surface insolation by 10–20 percent in some runs. Historical May climatology for the region shows average daily maxima near 25°C, yet year-to-year variability in May moisture transport can shift peaks by 2–3°C. Updated model guidance tonight and early tomorrow morning will determine whether the final observed high settles at the lower or upper end of this narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,144End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate Shanghai’s maximum temperature on May 22 will most likely fall between 24°C and 26°C, with the market’s near-even pricing between these outcomes reflecting minor but meaningful differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak southerly advection of warmer air. Subtropical high pressure is expected to dominate, limiting strong diurnal heating while scattered high clouds could reduce surface insolation by 10–20 percent in some runs. Historical May climatology for the region shows average daily maxima near 25°C, yet year-to-year variability in May moisture transport can shift peaks by 2–3°C. Updated model guidance tonight and early tomorrow morning will determine whether the final observed high settles at the lower or upper end of this narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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