The market's decisive 100% consensus on 30°C or higher stems from Hong Kong Observatory observations confirming daytime maxima well above that threshold on May 20, consistent with the agency's May–July 2026 outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures amid a long-term warming trend. Typical May highs average near 29°C, yet recent atmospheric conditions—including weak monsoon influence and urban heat retention—pushed readings higher, as reflected in official station data. Traders recognize that only an unexpected surge of cooler maritime air or persistent cloud cover and rain could have kept the peak below 30°C, scenarios unsupported by the latest model runs and real-time measurements. This positioning captures the wisdom of crowds assessing verified climatological patterns rather than forecasts alone.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 20?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 20?
30°C or higher 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$60,242 Vol.
$60,242 Vol.
May 20, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
100%
30°C or higher 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$60,242 Vol.
$60,242 Vol.
May 20, 2026
20°C or below
$306 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$326 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$337 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$372 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$314 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,104 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$13,016 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$8,925 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$6,499 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$14,716 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$14,327 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's decisive 100% consensus on 30°C or higher stems from Hong Kong Observatory observations confirming daytime maxima well above that threshold on May 20, consistent with the agency's May–July 2026 outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures amid a long-term warming trend. Typical May highs average near 29°C, yet recent atmospheric conditions—including weak monsoon influence and urban heat retention—pushed readings higher, as reflected in official station data. Traders recognize that only an unexpected surge of cooler maritime air or persistent cloud cover and rain could have kept the peak below 30°C, scenarios unsupported by the latest model runs and real-time measurements. This positioning captures the wisdom of crowds assessing verified climatological patterns rather than forecasts alone.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$60,242End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
Dispute window
Final
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's decisive 100% consensus on 30°C or higher stems from Hong Kong Observatory observations confirming daytime maxima well above that threshold on May 20, consistent with the agency's May–July 2026 outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures amid a long-term warming trend. Typical May highs average near 29°C, yet recent atmospheric conditions—including weak monsoon influence and urban heat retention—pushed readings higher, as reflected in official station data. Traders recognize that only an unexpected surge of cooler maritime air or persistent cloud cover and rain could have kept the peak below 30°C, scenarios unsupported by the latest model runs and real-time measurements. This positioning captures the wisdom of crowds assessing verified climatological patterns rather than forecasts alone.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$60,242End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
Dispute window
Final
The market's decisive 100% consensus on 30°C or higher stems from Hong Kong Observatory observations confirming daytime maxima well above that threshold on May 20, consistent with the agency's May–July 2026 outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures amid a long-term warming trend. Typical May highs average near 29°C, yet recent atmospheric conditions—including weak monsoon influence and urban heat retention—pushed readings higher, as reflected in official station data. Traders recognize that only an unexpected surge of cooler maritime air or persistent cloud cover and rain could have kept the peak below 30°C, scenarios unsupported by the latest model runs and real-time measurements. This positioning captures the wisdom of crowds assessing verified climatological patterns rather than forecasts alone.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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