Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-range forecasts and model ensemble consensus project a precise minimum temperature of 12°C for Seoul on May 14, driving the 99.8% market-implied probability amid mostly clear skies and light easterly winds conducive to radiative cooling overnight. Current observations from Seoul's central station align closely, with early morning readings stabilizing just above this threshold after the projected low, consistent with mid-May climatological norms where daily lows average 12–13°C. This tight forecast spread reflects high-confidence nowcasting, with negligible spread in global models like ECMWF and GFS. Realistic challenges would require anomalous cloud intrusion or cold air advection—low-probability events given stable high-pressure dominance—but traders await final KMA daily summary for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul on May 14?
Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 14?
$28,942 Vol.
$28,942 Vol.
May 14, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
100%
$28,942 Vol.
$28,942 Vol.
May 14, 2026
11°C or below
$11,782 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$3,363 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-range forecasts and model ensemble consensus project a precise minimum temperature of 12°C for Seoul on May 14, driving the 99.8% market-implied probability amid mostly clear skies and light easterly winds conducive to radiative cooling overnight. Current observations from Seoul's central station align closely, with early morning readings stabilizing just above this threshold after the projected low, consistent with mid-May climatological norms where daily lows average 12–13°C. This tight forecast spread reflects high-confidence nowcasting, with negligible spread in global models like ECMWF and GFS. Realistic challenges would require anomalous cloud intrusion or cold air advection—low-probability events given stable high-pressure dominance—but traders await final KMA daily summary for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$28,942End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-range forecasts and model ensemble consensus project a precise minimum temperature of 12°C for Seoul on May 14, driving the 99.8% market-implied probability amid mostly clear skies and light easterly winds conducive to radiative cooling overnight. Current observations from Seoul's central station align closely, with early morning readings stabilizing just above this threshold after the projected low, consistent with mid-May climatological norms where daily lows average 12–13°C. This tight forecast spread reflects high-confidence nowcasting, with negligible spread in global models like ECMWF and GFS. Realistic challenges would require anomalous cloud intrusion or cold air advection—low-probability events given stable high-pressure dominance—but traders await final KMA daily summary for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$28,942End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-range forecasts and model ensemble consensus project a precise minimum temperature of 12°C for Seoul on May 14, driving the 99.8% market-implied probability amid mostly clear skies and light easterly winds conducive to radiative cooling overnight. Current observations from Seoul's central station align closely, with early morning readings stabilizing just above this threshold after the projected low, consistent with mid-May climatological norms where daily lows average 12–13°C. This tight forecast spread reflects high-confidence nowcasting, with negligible spread in global models like ECMWF and GFS. Realistic challenges would require anomalous cloud intrusion or cold air advection—low-probability events given stable high-pressure dominance—but traders await final KMA daily summary for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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