Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF point to an overnight low of 8–9 °C in Paris on May 18, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Variable springtime conditions over western Europe, including patchy cloud cover and light winds, limit strong radiative cooling and introduce model spread that keeps 7 °C and 10 °C possibilities live but secondary. Mid-May climatological normals for Paris-Le Bourget hover near 9–11 °C, so the current setup represents near-average conditions rather than an outlier. Traders are monitoring the next model runs and any rapid clearing that could push the minimum lower before official resolution at the reference station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on May 18?
Lowest temperature in Paris on May 18?
9°C 51%
8°C 30%
10°C 19%
7°C 5.2%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
2°C or below
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
1%
5°C
1%
6°C
2%
7°C
5%
8°C
30%
9°C
39%
10°C
19%
11°C
5%
12°C or higher
1%
9°C 51%
8°C 30%
10°C 19%
7°C 5.2%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
2°C or below
$67 Vol.
<1%
3°C
$62 Vol.
<1%
4°C
$30 Vol.
1%
5°C
$45 Vol.
1%
6°C
$301 Vol.
2%
7°C
$215 Vol.
5%
8°C
$49 Vol.
30%
9°C
$152 Vol.
39%
10°C
$124 Vol.
19%
11°C
$107 Vol.
5%
12°C or higher
$925 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF point to an overnight low of 8–9 °C in Paris on May 18, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Variable springtime conditions over western Europe, including patchy cloud cover and light winds, limit strong radiative cooling and introduce model spread that keeps 7 °C and 10 °C possibilities live but secondary. Mid-May climatological normals for Paris-Le Bourget hover near 9–11 °C, so the current setup represents near-average conditions rather than an outlier. Traders are monitoring the next model runs and any rapid clearing that could push the minimum lower before official resolution at the reference station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,077End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF point to an overnight low of 8–9 °C in Paris on May 18, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Variable springtime conditions over western Europe, including patchy cloud cover and light winds, limit strong radiative cooling and introduce model spread that keeps 7 °C and 10 °C possibilities live but secondary. Mid-May climatological normals for Paris-Le Bourget hover near 9–11 °C, so the current setup represents near-average conditions rather than an outlier. Traders are monitoring the next model runs and any rapid clearing that could push the minimum lower before official resolution at the reference station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,077End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETCurrent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF point to an overnight low of 8–9 °C in Paris on May 18, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Variable springtime conditions over western Europe, including patchy cloud cover and light winds, limit strong radiative cooling and introduce model spread that keeps 7 °C and 10 °C possibilities live but secondary. Mid-May climatological normals for Paris-Le Bourget hover near 9–11 °C, so the current setup represents near-average conditions rather than an outlier. Traders are monitoring the next model runs and any rapid clearing that could push the minimum lower before official resolution at the reference station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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