Recent ensemble forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models indicate a warm, moist southerly flow over the Northeast, supporting overnight lows in the low-to-mid 70s for New York City on May 20 and driving the market’s emphasis on the 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins. Clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds are expected to limit radiative cooling, keeping minima well above the mid-May climatological average of 53–55°F recorded at Central Park and LaGuardia. This setup aligns with an ongoing warm spell that has produced daily lows 15–20°F above normal since mid-May. Updated model runs scheduled for the next 48 hours will refine the exact minimum and any potential for a brief cool-air intrusion that could shift probabilities toward the 68–69°F range.