Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 54-55°F (99.5%) as New York City's lowest temperature on May 13, 2026, backed by preliminary National Weather Service observations from the Central Park station recording a minimum around 54°F amid mostly cloudy skies and southerly breezes that inhibited radiative cooling overnight. This aligns precisely with pre-event forecast model consensus from NOAA ensembles, which projected mid-50s lows due to persistent cloud cover from an approaching frontal system and above-normal May baseline (historical average low ~54°F on this date). Scenarios challenging this include a rare data revision in the final NWS daily climate report—such as sensor recalibration—but such adjustments are minimal absent equipment anomalies, with resolution imminent via official Central Park summary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on May 13?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 13?
54-55°F 97.5%
52-53°F 2.5%
46-47°F <1%
44-45°F <1%
$16,206 Vol.
$16,206 Vol.
May 13, 2026
43°F or below
<1%
44-45°F
1%
46-47°F
1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
1%
52-53°F
3%
54-55°F
98%
54-55°F 97.5%
52-53°F 2.5%
46-47°F <1%
44-45°F <1%
$16,206 Vol.
$16,206 Vol.
May 13, 2026
43°F or below
$1,320 Vol.
<1%
44-45°F
$2,001 Vol.
1%
46-47°F
$1,484 Vol.
1%
48-49°F
$1,668 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$1,306 Vol.
1%
52-53°F
$1,656 Vol.
3%
54-55°F
$3,641 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 54-55°F (99.5%) as New York City's lowest temperature on May 13, 2026, backed by preliminary National Weather Service observations from the Central Park station recording a minimum around 54°F amid mostly cloudy skies and southerly breezes that inhibited radiative cooling overnight. This aligns precisely with pre-event forecast model consensus from NOAA ensembles, which projected mid-50s lows due to persistent cloud cover from an approaching frontal system and above-normal May baseline (historical average low ~54°F on this date). Scenarios challenging this include a rare data revision in the final NWS daily climate report—such as sensor recalibration—but such adjustments are minimal absent equipment anomalies, with resolution imminent via official Central Park summary.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$16,206End Date
May 13, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 54-55°F (99.5%) as New York City's lowest temperature on May 13, 2026, backed by preliminary National Weather Service observations from the Central Park station recording a minimum around 54°F amid mostly cloudy skies and southerly breezes that inhibited radiative cooling overnight. This aligns precisely with pre-event forecast model consensus from NOAA ensembles, which projected mid-50s lows due to persistent cloud cover from an approaching frontal system and above-normal May baseline (historical average low ~54°F on this date). Scenarios challenging this include a rare data revision in the final NWS daily climate report—such as sensor recalibration—but such adjustments are minimal absent equipment anomalies, with resolution imminent via official Central Park summary.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$16,206End Date
May 13, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 54-55°F (99.5%) as New York City's lowest temperature on May 13, 2026, backed by preliminary National Weather Service observations from the Central Park station recording a minimum around 54°F amid mostly cloudy skies and southerly breezes that inhibited radiative cooling overnight. This aligns precisely with pre-event forecast model consensus from NOAA ensembles, which projected mid-50s lows due to persistent cloud cover from an approaching frontal system and above-normal May baseline (historical average low ~54°F on this date). Scenarios challenging this include a rare data revision in the final NWS daily climate report—such as sensor recalibration—but such adjustments are minimal absent equipment anomalies, with resolution imminent via official Central Park summary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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