Recent ensemble forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models point to a minimum temperature near 24–25 °C on May 19, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes amid elevated uncertainty. This range reflects typical May climatology, where nighttime radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and light winds can produce lows between 23 °C and 27 °C. Key variables include the extent of overnight cloudiness, which limits cooling, and any strengthening of southerly flow or moisture from the South China Sea that could raise temperatures. With the date only two days away, the next updated HKO forecast and model consensus runs will likely tighten the distribution as clearer signals emerge on wind patterns and precipitation timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 19?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 19?
25°C 34%
26°C 24%
24°C 18%
27°C 13.8%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
4%
24°C
18%
25°C
34%
26°C
24%
27°C
14%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 34%
26°C 24%
24°C 18%
27°C 13.8%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
19°C or below
$331 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$691 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$299 Vol.
1%
22°C
$96 Vol.
1%
23°C
$260 Vol.
4%
24°C
$13 Vol.
18%
25°C
$63 Vol.
34%
26°C
$69 Vol.
24%
27°C
$49 Vol.
14%
28°C
$208 Vol.
1%
29°C or higher
$286 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models point to a minimum temperature near 24–25 °C on May 19, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes amid elevated uncertainty. This range reflects typical May climatology, where nighttime radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and light winds can produce lows between 23 °C and 27 °C. Key variables include the extent of overnight cloudiness, which limits cooling, and any strengthening of southerly flow or moisture from the South China Sea that could raise temperatures. With the date only two days away, the next updated HKO forecast and model consensus runs will likely tighten the distribution as clearer signals emerge on wind patterns and precipitation timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,366End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models point to a minimum temperature near 24–25 °C on May 19, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes amid elevated uncertainty. This range reflects typical May climatology, where nighttime radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and light winds can produce lows between 23 °C and 27 °C. Key variables include the extent of overnight cloudiness, which limits cooling, and any strengthening of southerly flow or moisture from the South China Sea that could raise temperatures. With the date only two days away, the next updated HKO forecast and model consensus runs will likely tighten the distribution as clearer signals emerge on wind patterns and precipitation timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,366End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models point to a minimum temperature near 24–25 °C on May 19, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes amid elevated uncertainty. This range reflects typical May climatology, where nighttime radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and light winds can produce lows between 23 °C and 27 °C. Key variables include the extent of overnight cloudiness, which limits cooling, and any strengthening of southerly flow or moisture from the South China Sea that could raise temperatures. With the date only two days away, the next updated HKO forecast and model consensus runs will likely tighten the distribution as clearer signals emerge on wind patterns and precipitation timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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