Recent numerical weather prediction models from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25°C for May 18, supporting the market-implied probabilities of 41% for 24°C and 30.5% for 25°C. A stable subtropical high-pressure system is promoting clear to partly cloudy skies across the region, enabling moderate overnight radiative cooling while limiting daytime heating. This aligns with typical mid-May climatology, where overnight lows in Hong Kong usually range from 23°C to 25°C amid southerly flows and residual moisture. Traders appear to be weighting these official short-range forecasts heavily, with adjacent outcomes like 23°C at 12.5% reflecting only modest model uncertainty ahead of tonight’s final observational updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 18?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 18?
25°C 35%
24°C 30%
23°C 12%
22°C <1%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
12%
24°C
40%
25°C
37%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
25°C 35%
24°C 30%
23°C 12%
22°C <1%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
$484 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$544 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$158 Vol.
1%
21°C
$230 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$125 Vol.
1%
23°C
$469 Vol.
12%
24°C
$87 Vol.
40%
25°C
$179 Vol.
37%
26°C
$2,881 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,159 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$426 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent numerical weather prediction models from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25°C for May 18, supporting the market-implied probabilities of 41% for 24°C and 30.5% for 25°C. A stable subtropical high-pressure system is promoting clear to partly cloudy skies across the region, enabling moderate overnight radiative cooling while limiting daytime heating. This aligns with typical mid-May climatology, where overnight lows in Hong Kong usually range from 23°C to 25°C amid southerly flows and residual moisture. Traders appear to be weighting these official short-range forecasts heavily, with adjacent outcomes like 23°C at 12.5% reflecting only modest model uncertainty ahead of tonight’s final observational updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$6,634End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent numerical weather prediction models from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25°C for May 18, supporting the market-implied probabilities of 41% for 24°C and 30.5% for 25°C. A stable subtropical high-pressure system is promoting clear to partly cloudy skies across the region, enabling moderate overnight radiative cooling while limiting daytime heating. This aligns with typical mid-May climatology, where overnight lows in Hong Kong usually range from 23°C to 25°C amid southerly flows and residual moisture. Traders appear to be weighting these official short-range forecasts heavily, with adjacent outcomes like 23°C at 12.5% reflecting only modest model uncertainty ahead of tonight’s final observational updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,634End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent numerical weather prediction models from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25°C for May 18, supporting the market-implied probabilities of 41% for 24°C and 30.5% for 25°C. A stable subtropical high-pressure system is promoting clear to partly cloudy skies across the region, enabling moderate overnight radiative cooling while limiting daytime heating. This aligns with typical mid-May climatology, where overnight lows in Hong Kong usually range from 23°C to 25°C amid southerly flows and residual moisture. Traders appear to be weighting these official short-range forecasts heavily, with adjacent outcomes like 23°C at 12.5% reflecting only modest model uncertainty ahead of tonight’s final observational updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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