Hong Kong Observatory's latest forecast models project a daily minimum temperature around 25°C for May 14, driving trader consensus with 38.5% implied probability on that outcome, closely trailed by 27°C or higher at 28.1% and 26°C at 25.9%. This positioning reflects mid-May's subtropical transition to summer, where overnight lows typically range 24–27°C due to persistent humidity above 80%, light winds, and urban heat island effects limiting radiative cooling. The seasonal outlook for May 2026 anticipates normal to above-normal temperatures, supported by recent observations of stable cloud cover preventing sharper drops. Hourly updates from King's Park station will refine this through the afternoon, with resolution based on the official 24-hour minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 14?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 14?
25°C 40%
26°C 26.1%
27°C or higher 17.6%
24°C 14%
$10,626 Vol.
$10,626 Vol.
May 14, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
14%
25°C
39%
26°C
26%
27°C or higher
28%
25°C 40%
26°C 26.1%
27°C or higher 17.6%
24°C 14%
$10,626 Vol.
$10,626 Vol.
May 14, 2026
17°C or below
$618 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$411 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$568 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$700 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,344 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$706 Vol.
1%
23°C
$1,053 Vol.
3%
24°C
$506 Vol.
14%
25°C
$145 Vol.
39%
26°C
$1,706 Vol.
26%
27°C or higher
$2,963 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's latest forecast models project a daily minimum temperature around 25°C for May 14, driving trader consensus with 38.5% implied probability on that outcome, closely trailed by 27°C or higher at 28.1% and 26°C at 25.9%. This positioning reflects mid-May's subtropical transition to summer, where overnight lows typically range 24–27°C due to persistent humidity above 80%, light winds, and urban heat island effects limiting radiative cooling. The seasonal outlook for May 2026 anticipates normal to above-normal temperatures, supported by recent observations of stable cloud cover preventing sharper drops. Hourly updates from King's Park station will refine this through the afternoon, with resolution based on the official 24-hour minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$10,626End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's latest forecast models project a daily minimum temperature around 25°C for May 14, driving trader consensus with 38.5% implied probability on that outcome, closely trailed by 27°C or higher at 28.1% and 26°C at 25.9%. This positioning reflects mid-May's subtropical transition to summer, where overnight lows typically range 24–27°C due to persistent humidity above 80%, light winds, and urban heat island effects limiting radiative cooling. The seasonal outlook for May 2026 anticipates normal to above-normal temperatures, supported by recent observations of stable cloud cover preventing sharper drops. Hourly updates from King's Park station will refine this through the afternoon, with resolution based on the official 24-hour minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,626End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong Observatory's latest forecast models project a daily minimum temperature around 25°C for May 14, driving trader consensus with 38.5% implied probability on that outcome, closely trailed by 27°C or higher at 28.1% and 26°C at 25.9%. This positioning reflects mid-May's subtropical transition to summer, where overnight lows typically range 24–27°C due to persistent humidity above 80%, light winds, and urban heat island effects limiting radiative cooling. The seasonal outlook for May 2026 anticipates normal to above-normal temperatures, supported by recent observations of stable cloud cover preventing sharper drops. Hourly updates from King's Park station will refine this through the afternoon, with resolution based on the official 24-hour minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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