Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate a Miami high temperature near 88–89°F on May 22, driven by typical late-spring easterly flow, moderate humidity, and limited cloud cover that allows strong daytime heating. Sea-breeze convergence along the coast may temper the peak slightly compared with inland areas, while climatological normals for the date hover around 87°F. Traders assign the highest probability to the 88–89°F bracket because recent model consensus and verification from similar May days align with this range, yet the 28% implied odds on 86–87°F reflect lingering uncertainty over exact timing of cloud build-up or stronger onshore winds that could shave a degree or two off the maximum. Official resolution will use the daily maximum recorded at Miami International Airport.