Current ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate a maximum temperature of 23–24°C in Warsaw on June 6 under partly cloudy conditions with light northwest flow and minimal precipitation. This consensus, aligned with long-term June climatology of 22–24°C highs, underpins the near-even market split between those two outcomes. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and timing of any diurnal heating peaks introduces the small probability mass at 25°C or 22°C and below, while the negligible odds above 26°C reflect the absence of warm advection or clear-sky radiative forcing that would push readings higher. Updated runs expected overnight will refine the exact peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on June 6?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on June 6?
24°C 40%
23°C 32%
25°C 17.1%
22°C or below 8%
NEW
NEW
Jun 6, 2026
22°C or below
8%
23°C
32%
24°C
40%
25°C
17%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
24°C 40%
23°C 32%
25°C 17.1%
22°C or below 8%
NEW
NEW
Jun 6, 2026
22°C or below
$282 Vol.
8%
23°C
$334 Vol.
32%
24°C
$209 Vol.
40%
25°C
$382 Vol.
17%
26°C
$321 Vol.
2%
27°C
$107 Vol.
2%
28°C
$160 Vol.
1%
29°C
$70 Vol.
1%
30°C
$0 Vol.
1%
31°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate a maximum temperature of 23–24°C in Warsaw on June 6 under partly cloudy conditions with light northwest flow and minimal precipitation. This consensus, aligned with long-term June climatology of 22–24°C highs, underpins the near-even market split between those two outcomes. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and timing of any diurnal heating peaks introduces the small probability mass at 25°C or 22°C and below, while the negligible odds above 26°C reflect the absence of warm advection or clear-sky radiative forcing that would push readings higher. Updated runs expected overnight will refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 5, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$1,803End Date
Jun 6, 2026Market Opened
Jun 5, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate a maximum temperature of 23–24°C in Warsaw on June 6 under partly cloudy conditions with light northwest flow and minimal precipitation. This consensus, aligned with long-term June climatology of 22–24°C highs, underpins the near-even market split between those two outcomes. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and timing of any diurnal heating peaks introduces the small probability mass at 25°C or 22°C and below, while the negligible odds above 26°C reflect the absence of warm advection or clear-sky radiative forcing that would push readings higher. Updated runs expected overnight will refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,803End Date
Jun 6, 2026Market Opened
Jun 5, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate a maximum temperature of 23–24°C in Warsaw on June 6 under partly cloudy conditions with light northwest flow and minimal precipitation. This consensus, aligned with long-term June climatology of 22–24°C highs, underpins the near-even market split between those two outcomes. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and timing of any diurnal heating peaks introduces the small probability mass at 25°C or 22°C and below, while the negligible odds above 26°C reflect the absence of warm advection or clear-sky radiative forcing that would push readings higher. Updated runs expected overnight will refine the exact peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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