Official forecasts from the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) and European models place Madrid’s June 5 maximum near 28–29 °C under typical early-summer high-pressure conditions with light northerly flow. Ensemble guidance shows only modest daytime heating, keeping the 30 °C threshold unlikely and confining the distribution to the narrow 28–29 °C band that now carries 91 % of market-implied probability. Recent model runs have remained stable, with no Saharan air-mass intrusion or clear-sky amplification expected to push temperatures higher before the daily peak is recorded at the Retiro reference station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on June 5?
29°C 55%
28°C 37%
30°C 9%
27°C 2.0%
$36,946 Vol.
$36,946 Vol.
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
37%
29°C
55%
30°C
9%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
29°C 55%
28°C 37%
30°C 9%
27°C 2.0%
$36,946 Vol.
$36,946 Vol.
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
37%
29°C
55%
30°C
9%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 3, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) and European models place Madrid’s June 5 maximum near 28–29 °C under typical early-summer high-pressure conditions with light northerly flow. Ensemble guidance shows only modest daytime heating, keeping the 30 °C threshold unlikely and confining the distribution to the narrow 28–29 °C band that now carries 91 % of market-implied probability. Recent model runs have remained stable, with no Saharan air-mass intrusion or clear-sky amplification expected to push temperatures higher before the daily peak is recorded at the Retiro reference station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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