Recent forecast updates from Environment Canada and supporting models show a pronounced southwesterly flow advecting warmer air into southern Ontario, combined with mostly clear skies that favor strong daytime heating at Toronto Pearson. These conditions have shifted the expected maximum well above the seasonal average of roughly 18 °C, placing the official high comfortably in the upper 20s Celsius and supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 27 °C or higher. Model consensus remains tight on the absence of significant cloud cover or precipitation that could cap temperatures, while climatological analogs for mid-May warm spells reinforce the elevated trajectory. Updated guidance issued in the past 24 hours has further solidified trader confidence in this outcome ahead of the day’s resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on May 17?
Highest temperature in Toronto on May 17?
27°C or higher 49.6%
26°C 36.2%
25°C 20.3%
17°C or below <1%
$48,934 Vol.
$48,934 Vol.
May 17, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
20%
26°C
36%
27°C or higher
50%
27°C or higher 49.6%
26°C 36.2%
25°C 20.3%
17°C or below <1%
$48,934 Vol.
$48,934 Vol.
May 17, 2026
17°C or below
$6,094 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$2,788 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$3,104 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,455 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$3,393 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$3,723 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$4,305 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$6,084 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$4,916 Vol.
20%
26°C
$4,316 Vol.
36%
27°C or higher
$7,874 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast updates from Environment Canada and supporting models show a pronounced southwesterly flow advecting warmer air into southern Ontario, combined with mostly clear skies that favor strong daytime heating at Toronto Pearson. These conditions have shifted the expected maximum well above the seasonal average of roughly 18 °C, placing the official high comfortably in the upper 20s Celsius and supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 27 °C or higher. Model consensus remains tight on the absence of significant cloud cover or precipitation that could cap temperatures, while climatological analogs for mid-May warm spells reinforce the elevated trajectory. Updated guidance issued in the past 24 hours has further solidified trader confidence in this outcome ahead of the day’s resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$48,934End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast updates from Environment Canada and supporting models show a pronounced southwesterly flow advecting warmer air into southern Ontario, combined with mostly clear skies that favor strong daytime heating at Toronto Pearson. These conditions have shifted the expected maximum well above the seasonal average of roughly 18 °C, placing the official high comfortably in the upper 20s Celsius and supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 27 °C or higher. Model consensus remains tight on the absence of significant cloud cover or precipitation that could cap temperatures, while climatological analogs for mid-May warm spells reinforce the elevated trajectory. Updated guidance issued in the past 24 hours has further solidified trader confidence in this outcome ahead of the day’s resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$48,934End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZRecent forecast updates from Environment Canada and supporting models show a pronounced southwesterly flow advecting warmer air into southern Ontario, combined with mostly clear skies that favor strong daytime heating at Toronto Pearson. These conditions have shifted the expected maximum well above the seasonal average of roughly 18 °C, placing the official high comfortably in the upper 20s Celsius and supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 27 °C or higher. Model consensus remains tight on the absence of significant cloud cover or precipitation that could cap temperatures, while climatological analogs for mid-May warm spells reinforce the elevated trajectory. Updated guidance issued in the past 24 hours has further solidified trader confidence in this outcome ahead of the day’s resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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