Korea Meteorological Administration's latest short-term forecast, updated May 14, projects Seoul highs of 22–32°C on May 15 under mostly clear skies, driving trader consensus toward 26°C or higher at 45.5% implied probability, with 24°C and 25°C each at 20%. This reflects a sharp warming trend following early-May highs around 20–21°C and recent rain, fueled by a building upper-level ridge and southerly winds enhancing solar heating amid 2026's hotter-than-normal spring pattern. AccuWeather guidance tempers at ~24°C, highlighting model spread and uncertainty from potential afternoon clouds or sea breezes. Mid-May climatology averages 22–24°C, but current atmospheric setup favors upside potential; watch KMA's evening update for refined ensemble runs before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on May 15?
Highest temperature in Seoul on May 15?
26°C or higher 48%
25°C 20%
24°C 16%
23°C 14%
NEW
$27,376 Vol.
NEW
$27,376 Vol.
May 15, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
14%
24°C
16%
25°C
20%
26°C or higher
44%
26°C or higher 48%
25°C 20%
24°C 16%
23°C 14%
NEW
$27,376 Vol.
NEW
$27,376 Vol.
May 15, 2026
16°C or below
$1,534 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,049 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,452 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,852 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,785 Vol.
1%
21°C
$6,276 Vol.
1%
22°C
$4,651 Vol.
2%
23°C
$2,962 Vol.
14%
24°C
$1,199 Vol.
16%
25°C
$1,090 Vol.
20%
26°C or higher
$3,735 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration's latest short-term forecast, updated May 14, projects Seoul highs of 22–32°C on May 15 under mostly clear skies, driving trader consensus toward 26°C or higher at 45.5% implied probability, with 24°C and 25°C each at 20%. This reflects a sharp warming trend following early-May highs around 20–21°C and recent rain, fueled by a building upper-level ridge and southerly winds enhancing solar heating amid 2026's hotter-than-normal spring pattern. AccuWeather guidance tempers at ~24°C, highlighting model spread and uncertainty from potential afternoon clouds or sea breezes. Mid-May climatology averages 22–24°C, but current atmospheric setup favors upside potential; watch KMA's evening update for refined ensemble runs before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$27,376End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration's latest short-term forecast, updated May 14, projects Seoul highs of 22–32°C on May 15 under mostly clear skies, driving trader consensus toward 26°C or higher at 45.5% implied probability, with 24°C and 25°C each at 20%. This reflects a sharp warming trend following early-May highs around 20–21°C and recent rain, fueled by a building upper-level ridge and southerly winds enhancing solar heating amid 2026's hotter-than-normal spring pattern. AccuWeather guidance tempers at ~24°C, highlighting model spread and uncertainty from potential afternoon clouds or sea breezes. Mid-May climatology averages 22–24°C, but current atmospheric setup favors upside potential; watch KMA's evening update for refined ensemble runs before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$27,376End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Korea Meteorological Administration's latest short-term forecast, updated May 14, projects Seoul highs of 22–32°C on May 15 under mostly clear skies, driving trader consensus toward 26°C or higher at 45.5% implied probability, with 24°C and 25°C each at 20%. This reflects a sharp warming trend following early-May highs around 20–21°C and recent rain, fueled by a building upper-level ridge and southerly winds enhancing solar heating amid 2026's hotter-than-normal spring pattern. AccuWeather guidance tempers at ~24°C, highlighting model spread and uncertainty from potential afternoon clouds or sea breezes. Mid-May climatology averages 22–24°C, but current atmospheric setup favors upside potential; watch KMA's evening update for refined ensemble runs before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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