National Weather Service forecasts and real-time observations have positioned the 68°F-or-higher outcome as the clear market leader at 88% implied probability for San Francisco’s May 17 high. This reflects current model consensus showing sunny skies and a daytime maximum near or above the climatological normal of 68°F at San Francisco International Airport, supported by a weak high-pressure ridge limiting the usual marine-layer stratus and allowing modest warming under light northwest winds. Updated runs indicate minimal cloud cover through peak heating hours, with only slight onshore flow expected to keep temperatures from surging far beyond seasonal averages. Traders are closely watching morning observations and any late-day model revisions that could alter the final recorded high before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on May 17?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 17?
68°F or higher 88%
66-67°F 11%
64-65°F 1.1%
62-63°F <1%
$19,536 Vol.
$19,536 Vol.
May 17, 2026
49°F or below
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
11%
68°F or higher
88%
68°F or higher 88%
66-67°F 11%
64-65°F 1.1%
62-63°F <1%
$19,536 Vol.
$19,536 Vol.
May 17, 2026
49°F or below
$894 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$1,515 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$555 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$608 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$3,362 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$2,018 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$1,112 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$1,885 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$3,510 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$2,113 Vol.
11%
68°F or higher
$1,965 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts and real-time observations have positioned the 68°F-or-higher outcome as the clear market leader at 88% implied probability for San Francisco’s May 17 high. This reflects current model consensus showing sunny skies and a daytime maximum near or above the climatological normal of 68°F at San Francisco International Airport, supported by a weak high-pressure ridge limiting the usual marine-layer stratus and allowing modest warming under light northwest winds. Updated runs indicate minimal cloud cover through peak heating hours, with only slight onshore flow expected to keep temperatures from surging far beyond seasonal averages. Traders are closely watching morning observations and any late-day model revisions that could alter the final recorded high before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$19,536End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts and real-time observations have positioned the 68°F-or-higher outcome as the clear market leader at 88% implied probability for San Francisco’s May 17 high. This reflects current model consensus showing sunny skies and a daytime maximum near or above the climatological normal of 68°F at San Francisco International Airport, supported by a weak high-pressure ridge limiting the usual marine-layer stratus and allowing modest warming under light northwest winds. Updated runs indicate minimal cloud cover through peak heating hours, with only slight onshore flow expected to keep temperatures from surging far beyond seasonal averages. Traders are closely watching morning observations and any late-day model revisions that could alter the final recorded high before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$19,536End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFONational Weather Service forecasts and real-time observations have positioned the 68°F-or-higher outcome as the clear market leader at 88% implied probability for San Francisco’s May 17 high. This reflects current model consensus showing sunny skies and a daytime maximum near or above the climatological normal of 68°F at San Francisco International Airport, supported by a weak high-pressure ridge limiting the usual marine-layer stratus and allowing modest warming under light northwest winds. Updated runs indicate minimal cloud cover through peak heating hours, with only slight onshore flow expected to keep temperatures from surging far beyond seasonal averages. Traders are closely watching morning observations and any late-day model revisions that could alter the final recorded high before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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