Recent forecast runs from the ECMWF and German Weather Service models indicate a building high-pressure ridge over central Europe will deliver mostly sunny skies and light northeasterly flow to Munich on May 22, supporting afternoon maxima in the 23–26 °C range. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24 °C and 25 °C reflects modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing depth and the exact timing of peak insolation, both of which can alter the daily high by 1–2 °C. Clear conditions should allow efficient daytime heating above the May climatological average of roughly 18 °C, yet any late-morning stratus or slight increase in low-level moisture could cap the peak near 23 °C. Updated 12 UTC model guidance and local METAR observations tomorrow morning will provide the clearest signal ahead of market resolution.