Recent forecasts from Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center highlight southerly air-mass advection transporting warmer subtropical air northward, positioning Moscow’s expected daytime high near 28–29 °C on May 18. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread in peak heating tied to variable cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which accounts for the near-even market split between the 28 °C and 29 °C outcomes. Climatologically, mid-May highs average 18–22 °C, so the current anomaly reflects a transient warm front rather than seasonal norms. Traders are monitoring the next model cycle and any late-day convective development that could trim or boost the maximum by 1–2 °C before official station readings close the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on May 18?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 18?
29°C 31%
28°C 30%
30°C 19%
27°C 15%
NEW
$10,300 Vol.
NEW
$10,300 Vol.
May 18, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
15%
28°C
30%
29°C
31%
30°C
19%
31°C or higher
3%
29°C 31%
28°C 30%
30°C 19%
27°C 15%
NEW
$10,300 Vol.
NEW
$10,300 Vol.
May 18, 2026
21°C or below
$870 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$533 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,126 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$2,474 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,590 Vol.
1%
26°C
$568 Vol.
5%
27°C
$476 Vol.
15%
28°C
$671 Vol.
30%
29°C
$438 Vol.
31%
30°C
$383 Vol.
19%
31°C or higher
$1,174 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center highlight southerly air-mass advection transporting warmer subtropical air northward, positioning Moscow’s expected daytime high near 28–29 °C on May 18. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread in peak heating tied to variable cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which accounts for the near-even market split between the 28 °C and 29 °C outcomes. Climatologically, mid-May highs average 18–22 °C, so the current anomaly reflects a transient warm front rather than seasonal norms. Traders are monitoring the next model cycle and any late-day convective development that could trim or boost the maximum by 1–2 °C before official station readings close the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$10,300End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center highlight southerly air-mass advection transporting warmer subtropical air northward, positioning Moscow’s expected daytime high near 28–29 °C on May 18. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread in peak heating tied to variable cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which accounts for the near-even market split between the 28 °C and 29 °C outcomes. Climatologically, mid-May highs average 18–22 °C, so the current anomaly reflects a transient warm front rather than seasonal norms. Traders are monitoring the next model cycle and any late-day convective development that could trim or boost the maximum by 1–2 °C before official station readings close the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,300End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent forecasts from Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center highlight southerly air-mass advection transporting warmer subtropical air northward, positioning Moscow’s expected daytime high near 28–29 °C on May 18. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread in peak heating tied to variable cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which accounts for the near-even market split between the 28 °C and 29 °C outcomes. Climatologically, mid-May highs average 18–22 °C, so the current anomaly reflects a transient warm front rather than seasonal norms. Traders are monitoring the next model cycle and any late-day convective development that could trim or boost the maximum by 1–2 °C before official station readings close the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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