Stable high-pressure systems and moderate westerly flow across central Spain are driving ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System toward a daily maximum of 23–25 °C at Madrid-Barajas Airport on May 18. These conditions suppress cloud formation and limit daytime heating, placing the strongest market-implied probability on 24 °C. Historical May climatology shows average highs near 22–24 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above normal. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus heavily, though minor variations in wind or insolation could still shift the observed peak by 1–2 °C before final verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on May 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 18?
24°C 54%
23°C 25%
25°C 15%
22°C 6%
NEW
$11,344 Vol.
NEW
$11,344 Vol.
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
6%
23°C
25%
24°C
54%
25°C
15%
26°C
4%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
1%
24°C 54%
23°C 25%
25°C 15%
22°C 6%
NEW
$11,344 Vol.
NEW
$11,344 Vol.
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
$586 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$871 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,421 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,117 Vol.
1%
22°C
$1,570 Vol.
6%
23°C
$1,252 Vol.
25%
24°C
$2,047 Vol.
54%
25°C
$1,048 Vol.
15%
26°C
$380 Vol.
4%
27°C
$439 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$633 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Stable high-pressure systems and moderate westerly flow across central Spain are driving ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System toward a daily maximum of 23–25 °C at Madrid-Barajas Airport on May 18. These conditions suppress cloud formation and limit daytime heating, placing the strongest market-implied probability on 24 °C. Historical May climatology shows average highs near 22–24 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above normal. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus heavily, though minor variations in wind or insolation could still shift the observed peak by 1–2 °C before final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$11,344End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Stable high-pressure systems and moderate westerly flow across central Spain are driving ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System toward a daily maximum of 23–25 °C at Madrid-Barajas Airport on May 18. These conditions suppress cloud formation and limit daytime heating, placing the strongest market-implied probability on 24 °C. Historical May climatology shows average highs near 22–24 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above normal. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus heavily, though minor variations in wind or insolation could still shift the observed peak by 1–2 °C before final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$11,344End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDStable high-pressure systems and moderate westerly flow across central Spain are driving ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System toward a daily maximum of 23–25 °C at Madrid-Barajas Airport on May 18. These conditions suppress cloud formation and limit daytime heating, placing the strongest market-implied probability on 24 °C. Historical May climatology shows average highs near 22–24 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above normal. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus heavily, though minor variations in wind or insolation could still shift the observed peak by 1–2 °C before final verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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