Trader sentiment for Shanghai's minimum temperature on May 25 reflects close alignment among ensemble forecasts from major models, with the 22°C outcome leading at 32.5% due to consensus around typical late-May conditions under a strengthening subtropical high. Key differentiators include the strength and timing of any northerly cold-air intrusions versus sustained southerly moisture flows, which can shift overnight lows by several degrees, alongside urban heat-island effects and potential cloud cover or light precipitation that moderates radiative cooling. Current model runs show modest spread in 500-hPa heights and low-level wind patterns, keeping probabilities for 16°C-or-below or 26°C-and-higher outcomes nearly even at 25.5% each. Updated guidance from global and regional forecasting centers over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these ranges ahead of the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 25?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 25?
22°C 38%
16°C or below 26%
26°C or higher 26%
23°C 20%
NEW
NEW
May 25, 2026
16°C or below
26%
17°C
12%
18°C
13%
19°C
15%
20°C
17%
21°C
18%
22°C
32%
23°C
20%
24°C
20%
25°C
18%
26°C or higher
26%
22°C 38%
16°C or below 26%
26°C or higher 26%
23°C 20%
NEW
NEW
May 25, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
26%
17°C
$0 Vol.
12%
18°C
$0 Vol.
13%
19°C
$0 Vol.
15%
20°C
$0 Vol.
17%
21°C
$0 Vol.
18%
22°C
$5 Vol.
32%
23°C
$0 Vol.
20%
24°C
$0 Vol.
20%
25°C
$0 Vol.
18%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment for Shanghai's minimum temperature on May 25 reflects close alignment among ensemble forecasts from major models, with the 22°C outcome leading at 32.5% due to consensus around typical late-May conditions under a strengthening subtropical high. Key differentiators include the strength and timing of any northerly cold-air intrusions versus sustained southerly moisture flows, which can shift overnight lows by several degrees, alongside urban heat-island effects and potential cloud cover or light precipitation that moderates radiative cooling. Current model runs show modest spread in 500-hPa heights and low-level wind patterns, keeping probabilities for 16°C-or-below or 26°C-and-higher outcomes nearly even at 25.5% each. Updated guidance from global and regional forecasting centers over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these ranges ahead of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$5End Date
May 25, 2026Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment for Shanghai's minimum temperature on May 25 reflects close alignment among ensemble forecasts from major models, with the 22°C outcome leading at 32.5% due to consensus around typical late-May conditions under a strengthening subtropical high. Key differentiators include the strength and timing of any northerly cold-air intrusions versus sustained southerly moisture flows, which can shift overnight lows by several degrees, alongside urban heat-island effects and potential cloud cover or light precipitation that moderates radiative cooling. Current model runs show modest spread in 500-hPa heights and low-level wind patterns, keeping probabilities for 16°C-or-below or 26°C-and-higher outcomes nearly even at 25.5% each. Updated guidance from global and regional forecasting centers over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these ranges ahead of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5End Date
May 25, 2026Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Shanghai's minimum temperature on May 25 reflects close alignment among ensemble forecasts from major models, with the 22°C outcome leading at 32.5% due to consensus around typical late-May conditions under a strengthening subtropical high. Key differentiators include the strength and timing of any northerly cold-air intrusions versus sustained southerly moisture flows, which can shift overnight lows by several degrees, alongside urban heat-island effects and potential cloud cover or light precipitation that moderates radiative cooling. Current model runs show modest spread in 500-hPa heights and low-level wind patterns, keeping probabilities for 16°C-or-below or 26°C-and-higher outcomes nearly even at 25.5% each. Updated guidance from global and regional forecasting centers over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these ranges ahead of the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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